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waterbuffalo49's rumours posts with other poster's replies to waterbuffalo49's rumours posts
08 Mar 2023 01:44:05
Since the deadline has passed and there will be no more trades until the draft, I thought it would be interesting to outline the team that I would have built at the trade deadline as opposed to Dubas's mechanizations.
Crouse - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Barbashev - Bjugstad - Jarnkrok
Acciari - Kampf - Lafferty
Steeves/McMann
Chychrun - Brodie
MCCabe - Liljegren
Giordano - Schenn
Reilly
Samsonov
Vejmelka
Out:
Leafs 2023 1st
Leafs 2023 3td
Leafs 2023 3rd via Ottawa
Leafs 2024 1st
Leafs 2024 2nd
Leafs 2024 3rd
Leafs 2025 1st
Leafs 2025 3rd
Not substantially different than what was done.
Murray $4.7
Kerfoot $3.5
Engvall $2.25
Holl $2
Sandin $1.4
Aston Reese $800,000
Simmons $900,000
Total $15.55
In
Chychrun $4.6
Crouse $4.3
Vejmelka $2.725
MCCabe $2 (50% retained)
Bjugstad $900,000
Acciari $800,000
Lafferty $1.15
Schenn $800,000
Total $17.275
Difference $1.725
All players except Crouse were available and involved in trades.
1.) 08 Mar 2023 03:00:27
A couple of these I don't agree on.
Barbashev is a PP specialist and don't see any room for him on this PP.
Although I like Bjugstad, I can't fault Dubas for the ROR trade. ROR is exactly what this team needs imo.
Great topic for discussion. I'm sure we all have players/ trades in mind we wish happened and others we think weren't worth it.
I almost scrolled past this thinking it was Kennedy until I realized Kane isn't a Leafs player lol.
2.) 08 Mar 2023 11:25:35
Interesting idea WB. Kind of hard to follow as there are no real trades mentioned, just who comes in and who leaves. Who took Murray in what trade for instance? Also, you have Barbashev in the lineup, but he is not accounted for in your players in cap totals.
3.) 08 Mar 2023 14:38:22
Would be more interesting if there was a breakdown of what went to who. i would guess that as there are several Coyotes on that new team that the majority of picks that were sent out went to them. that said where did the leafs players go? It sounds like Arizona wanted nothing to do with taking back contacts, so again seeing as there are so many Yotes on this team dunno if it would have gotten done as i would think they were shipped there.
4.) 08 Mar 2023 23:44:27
The question asked was what would the trades have looked like?
These are the transactions I would like to have seen at the trade deadline.
To Arizona:
2023 -1st
2023 - 3rd
2025 - 1st
2025 - 3rd
Matthew Knies
Rasmus Sandin $1.4
Nick Robertson $762,000
William Villeneuve
Joseph Woll
Matt Murray $4.7
Alex Kerfoot $3.5
Pierre Engvall $2.25
Justin Holl $2
To Leafs:
Jacob Chychrun $4.6
Lawson Crouse $4.3
Karl Vejmelka $2.725
Bjugstad $900,000
In: $12.525
Out: $14.687
To Chicago:
2024 - 1st
2024 - 2nd
Wayne Simmons $900,000
Aston Reese $800,000
To Leafs:
Jake MCCabe $2 ( (50% retained)
Sam Lafferty $1.15
In : $3.15
Out: $1.7
To St Louis
2023 - 3rd via Ottawa
2026 - 2nd
Jordie Benn $800,000
To Leafs
Noel Acciari $800,000
Ivan Barbashev $1.15 (50% retained)
In: $1.95
Out: $800,000
To Vancouver:
2024 - 3rd
To Leafs:
Luke Schenn $800,000
Total In: $18.425
Total Out: $17.187
Crouse - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Barbashev - Bjugstad - Jarnkrok
Acciari - Kampf - Lafferty
Chychrun - Brodie
MCCabe - Liljegren
Giordano- Schenn
Reilly
Samsonov
Vejmelka.
5.) 09 Mar 2023 01:34:38
@WB why Barbashev? It's the one I don't understand.
I'm a little hesitant on Crouse, but I understand why everyone wants him as well.
6.) 09 Mar 2023 13:45:41
Thanks WB, this is what I meant. You added Knies, Woll, Simmonds, Benn, Robertson, Villeneuve and another 2nd that wasn't included in your original post. There is some pretty significant extra value there now.
Arizona deal is interesting, but you are asking them not only to take to take Murray, but 3 pending UFA's. You may have given them enough value otherwise though if they were interested in moving Crouse and Vejmelka (who also wasn't actually involved in a trade) .
You reduced the return for Chicago a bit from what they got, but nothing that probably stops the deal unless Chicago wanted Anderson.
I think you are too light on the STL deal. They got Dean for Barbashev alone.
The Luke Schenn deal basically the deal, but would depend on if Rutherford wants the picks for this draft as they didn't have much draft capital.
All in all, most seem reasonable. Well done.
7.) 10 Mar 2023 00:07:42
RLF
Kerfoot, Holl and Engvall are all expiring contracts that Coyotes would have the option of trying to extend or not depending on how they fit.
Any RFA’s are still under team control.
Barbashev is a bit of an outlier.
I like his physicality and since Knies is being traded I thought Barbashev might be a good fit.
He is not necessarily required though.
09 Feb 2023 01:37:32
Would Vancouver be interested?
To Leafs: Brock Boeser ($6.6 x 2 more years)
To Vancouver: Morgan Reilly ($7.5 x7 more years)
Morgan Reilly has a full NTC but. Vancouver is home.
Leafs then package 2023 - 1st round pick, Brock Boeser, and whatever else is necessary (that isn't Knies or Niemala) to acquire either Chychrun to upgrade the defense or Crouse to upgrade the left wing slot on the second line.
1.) 09 Feb 2023 02:37:05
The Mo hate has really taken over this fan base.
2.) 09 Feb 2023 11:35:40
Didn't you post just a couple days ago that you didn't want Boeser even for free.
Quite the change of heart WB49. lol.
3.) 10 Feb 2023 22:12:45
Agree with Leafs Life
A players career particularly a defensemans does not always run in a atraight line, injuries of course play a factor. Karlsson on San Jose an immensely talented player having a career year, he's had off years also. Reilly next year could score 20 goals, the talent is there always has been. Next year the GM is hiring either Trotz or Queenville.
4.) 11 Feb 2023 05:56:18
RLF
Perhaps you didn’t notice that Boeser was only being acquired in order to be shipped off to the Coyotes in a Chychrun - Crouse transaction.
This would require prior confirmation from the Coyotes that they would be interested.
You are right!
I do not want to see Boeser wearing Blue & White.
5.) 11 Feb 2023 12:42:36
@WB. I saw the next move. I just thought it funny you say you wouldn't take him for free, but then hope to flip him to Arizona with a 1st+ for Chychrun. If you think he sucks, why would Arizona want him was the point.
08 Feb 2023 02:20:25
Leafs need to up grade the defense and the left wing slot with Tavares and Nylander.
To Coyotes:
2023 1st round pick
2025 1st round pick
Rasmus Sandin $1.4
Matthew Knies
Nick Robertson
Joseph Woll
Matt Murray $4.7
Alex Kerfoot $3.5
Pierre Engvall $2.25
To Leafs:
Chychrun $4.6 defense upgraded
Crouse $4.3 top 6 upgraded
Vejmelka $2.75 goaltending stabilized
Total Out: $11.85
Total In: $11.65
1.) 08 Feb 2023 04:29:38
I’d do it! Do it! Make this happen! ??.
2.) 08 Feb 2023 12:49:41
I like the players, but don't feel the need to pay to add to goaltending.
Also, a bit of an overpayment, however, if Arizona also retains some cap do it.
3.) 08 Feb 2023 13:31:14
I think Murray says no, like he did to go to Buffalo. I'm extremely hesitant to trade Knies aswell.
4.) 08 Feb 2023 13:35:27
A lot to pay, but this year the team looks better. Next year the cap crunch will be even worse though. No way they could resign Bunting unless he signs with no raise. You also have to get Murray and Kerfoot to waive their NTC's to go to Arizona. Not sure I would do it.
5.) 08 Feb 2023 19:35:15
Leafs need to add
Lol
You been drinking H2O Ox?
6.) 09 Feb 2023 01:11:15
Torontobuds
I am not suggesting paying to add to Leafs goaltending.
I am suggesting the Leafs get rid of their $4.7 million dollar, chronically injured goaltender in exchange for a very good $2.75 million dollar goaltender and SAVE $2 million in the process.
7.) 09 Feb 2023 01:14:22
Leaf67
I acknowledge the reluctance to trade Knies.
On the other hand Knies is very much a Lawson Crouse clone.
Crouse is only 25 years old, with 4 more years on his very reasonable $4.3 million dollar contract.
Will Knies ever be better than Crouse.
Perhaps but….
Not for a few years at least which represents Leafs window to winning the Cup.
8.) 09 Feb 2023 01:18:08
RLF
This proposal does affect the possible resigning of Bunting.
But if Bunting wants more than Leafs can afford then Crouse provides a more than suitable replacement on roughly the same contract Leafs will have to offer Bunting to resign him.
The biggest concern, of course, is having sufficient funds to resign Samsonov.
9.) 09 Feb 2023 02:30:20
@WB49. You misunderstood my point. The Leafs will have even less cap space next year than they would have before the trade. Not only can they not resign Bunting, they will be right back where they were in regards to having a need for another top 6 LW and even less money to fill out the bottom 6. If they don't win the Cup this year under your plan, the team next year will likely be worse than the current team.
10.) 10 Feb 2023 00:20:40
Keep Knies out of it
I’m telling ya he’s going to be a stud in the NHL and the Leafs desperately need one of those
Remember playoff hockey is coming up and it don’t mean squat how many games you’ve won going in
( see record last 3 years)
Definitely let Rielly go
They played better without him.
05 Jan 2023 05:29:21
Supposedly almost everyone except Pettersson and Hughes are available from Vancouver.
There is a lot of trade talk swirling around Bo Horvat and Brock BOESER.
But..
Canucks signed a 26 year old KHL, free agent this past summer.
He is a right shooting, left wing who has accumulated 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points and is a plus 9 on a very poor defensive team in Vancouver.
Andrei Kuzmenko is 5'11", 195lbs has shown excellent offensive as well as defensive skills and would be a great fit with Tavares and Marner.
To Leafs: Andrei Kuzmenko
To Vancouver: Robertson, Niemala and a 2024 - 2nd round pick.
Leafs include the expiring cap hit of Wayne Simmons ($900,000) to balance Kuzmenko's ($950,000) salary and Standard Player Contract.
Not sure that two "B" prospects and a 2nd are enough?
Thoughts?
1.) 05 Jan 2023 11:55:09
Overpayment for him from the Leafs.
2.) 05 Jan 2023 11:57:18
That’s a lot for a guy playing in his first nhl season he’s been good but not this package good.
3.) 06 Jan 2023 04:41:38
Hmmmm.
Really?
Robertson is, to date, a chronically injured AHL player who has yet to prove he can, or ever will be able to play in the NHL.
Niemala is a “B” prospect, RHD.
Plus a 2nd round pick.
That does not seem like a lot for a top 6, left wing who has scored:
15 goals - 17 assists - 32 points - +9 in 38 games
This on a defensively inept Vancouver Canucks team.
Kuzmenko is only 26 years of age and has already proven he can be a top 6 player in both the KHL and the NHL.
He would be a great fit with Tavares and Marner.
Actually the cost of acquisition seems cheap to me.
27 Nov 2022 03:12:40
To Leafs: Lawson Crouse ($4.3)
To Arizona: Kerfoot ($3.5), Wayne Simmons (&900,000) for salary matching purpose, Arizona native son, Matthew Knies (terrific for marketing), plus either Leafs 2023 - 3rd round pick or 2025 - 2nd round pick, whichever one Arizona was not going to use from the Lyubushkin rental, as Arizona has the choice of selection.
Crouse would be a perfect addition to the Leafs 2nd line with Tavares and Marner.
Crouse would make Matthew Knies redundant at left wing.
It would allow Leafs to send Robertson down to the Marlies where he should be playing major minutes, as Keefe seems intent on stapling him to the bench.
Arizona gets a top prospect, another pick, a useful Kerfoot whose salary has already been mostly paid and is expiring next summer and a great mentor and leader in Simmons.
1.) 27 Nov 2022 04:48:30
No thx to trading knies.
2.) 27 Nov 2022 11:40:13
They don't want Simmonds and we don't wanna trade Knies. Not for that, atleast.
3.) 27 Nov 2022 12:29:54
Or possibly Knies makes Crouse redundant, we get to keep the picks and get something else for Kerfoot.
I’d be okay if you replace Knies with someone else!
4.) 27 Nov 2022 14:25:27
Your own reaction to this trade would be;
But Crouse is a -40 for his career and his best season is 34pts! Kerfoot is a 50 pt player, +21 and makes $.8M less! And you also want to add a great prospect in Knies plus a pick! No thanks!
The reality is that Arz just resigned Crouse to a 5 year $4.3M deal. He already has 9 goals on the season and has developed into a complete player that can be used in all situations. In the end, Arz would get a prospect they are not sure will be better than Crouse and a pick + whatever they can get for Kerfoot, that is if Kerfoot would even agree to go to Arz.
5.) 28 Nov 2022 00:26:35
Knies is a college player with hype but absolutely no pro pedigree.
Crouse has that and is the same age as Marner.
Knies could just as easily turn out to be another Tyler Biggs.
At best Knies won’t be an impact player for another year or two.
Leafs need to win now and Crouse can impact that.
6.) 28 Nov 2022 01:15:16
Crouse plays for the worst team in the league.
Looking at his plus/ minus is not a very accurate depiction of his value.
Crouse is a 25 year old pro who has proven he is an impact player.
Knies is a 21 year old NCAA player who has proven nothing to date.
Crouse scored 20 goals last year and already has 10 goals a 1/ 4 of the way through the 2022 - 2023 season.
There is no comparison between Crouse’s proven value and Knies potential value.
Crouse is a perfect fit foe the Tavares - Marner line while Knies is playing university hockey.
7.) 28 Nov 2022 04:15:35
Ok I’m really excited for the thought of what M Knies MIGHT be. For someone like Crouse who’s an established power forward I’d be down to create a package including Knies for him.
So
Leafs trade M Knies, SDA and Toronto’s
1st in 24’ top 10 protected
Yotes trade Crouse and forward Jack McBain
I’d think if Toronto could get the ball rolling with Arizona with the pkg above a sweetener could be added if necessary. Thoughts? Or should it be a subtraction by TO?
8.) 28 Nov 2022 12:36:14
@WB. C'mon WB49. You have used career +/ - numerous times in exactly the way I described you do to explain how a player isn't worth much. Severson a couple of times. Fischer for another, who plays on the same team as Crouse and a slightly worse career +/ -. I know you have with others when telling us how that player isn't worth the offer. If you now realize career +/ - is not a great way to evaluate a players worth (which I have said to you numerous times), then great.
What about prospects though. You say Knies has proven nothing to date and therefore doesn't carry much value. Ironically, you used to tell us how Holmberg had no real value either in trade suggestions and then after about 5 NHL games you call him the future #3C for the Leafs and is worth more than NHL players he is mentioned in trade suggestions. Knies has 4 Olympic games under his belt with 2 pts. Isn't that kind of similar experience to Holmberg having played 5 NHL games (Yes, I know he now has 8 games)? Maybe like career +/ -, saying because a player has no NHL experience isn't the best way to evaluate their worth. Before Matthews had played an NHL game, teams would have traded lots for him nonetheless. Teams are reluctant to give up "unproven" potential unless the return is too much to say no to. Just sayin.
9.) 28 Nov 2022 18:08:23
@RLF Justin Holl is a career +40
HoF for Holl!
waterbuffalo49's banter posts with other poster's replies to waterbuffalo49's banter posts
27 Feb 2023 07:58:54
Many contributors to this page have suggested Tanner Jeannot would be a good trade target for the Leafs.
Numerous suggestions for the extent of the return to Nashville have also been made.
Often headlining an expiring contract (Kerfoot or Engvall) a prospect (like Nick Robertson) and a mid round draft pick (2nd, or 3rd or 4th).
Here is what Tampa actually paid for Jeannot.
Lightning paid a high price in doing so by trading away third-year defenseman Cal Foote, as well as five draft picks, including a 2025 first-round selection that is top-10 protected. Tampa Bay also traded its second-round pick in the 2024 draft, as well as its third- fourth- and fifth-round selections this year.
1.) 27 Feb 2023 08:20:49
All that for a guy that has 5 goals yikes.
2.) 27 Feb 2023 12:22:02
They got a boatload for sure. I have been saying that Jeannot will cost a lot, but this still surprised. I figured Jeannot's cap hit this year would increase his value, but still this seems like a massive overpay. He isn't Tom Wilson. With Foote involved, I would have thought Foote and 1st and 3rd would have been enough. They got an extra 2nd, 4th and 5th. Poile is one of the best GM's in NHL history. Imo.
Leaf should still be trying to get Trenin and Lauzon imo. Trenin will not carry as much value as Jeannot and they both have term.
3.) 27 Feb 2023 13:36:19
I heard lots of team (s) were in the hunt, which I guess started a bidding war. Glad the Leafs didn't get him at this price.
At the end of the day, is this deal really more than the two 1st rounders they paid for Hagel last year? All depends on what Jeannot progresses into. ATM it's a huge overpay.
4.) 28 Feb 2023 00:39:56
With Tampa cap situation, Jeannot was probably the only real impact fit without removing from the main roster and Poile knew it. He exploited it like any good GM should.
20 Feb 2023 00:42:18
Now don't get me wrong, I like the trade - in a vacuum.
But as the Big Move I don't like it at all.
Ryan O'Reilly makes you a lot better if he can get back to the player he used to be.
That's a big ask for a 32 year old, injury prone, grinder with the current production level of a sub-Pierre Engvall player.
And let us not forget to account for O'Reilly's -24 this season.
Is there still an impact deal to be made to shore up the 2nd line LW position?
1.) 20 Feb 2023 10:16:47
O’reilly gives you more than a boost to the leafs lineup I will say I’d rather see him at 3c but what this
Team needs is a two dman that can move the puck they turn the puck over way to much in there own end and the breakouts have been an issue since December it seems.
2.) 20 Feb 2023 12:58:14
For me, the evaluation of the trade, or any trade for that matter is pretty simple. It is about what results you get from it.
If it ends up being for a one-time playoff run and the Leafs win the Cup, it worked out as a great trade. If O'Reilly re-signs on a very friendly deal, even though the Leafs don't win the Cup, it's a good trade. If the Leafs don't win the Cup, can't get at least O'Reilly re-signed at a friendly price, then it is another year where Dubas overestimated where his team is at and he has traded away most of his draft capital where next playoff's he doesn't have much left to trade unless he empties the prospect cupboard as well (that is assuming that doesn't happen this year) and therefore it is a bad trade.
3.) 20 Feb 2023 18:30:07
One more scenario RLF, if they win one round is it at least even up. I know a lot of people on here are looking strictly at results over the past years, and rightfully so, but I am pretty sure they may have had better luck in another division. Tampa and Boston have been great ever since the group started.
4.) 20 Feb 2023 20:32:08
@16. Just my opinion, but if they can't get O'Reilly locked up on the cheaper side, it is a loss if they don't win the Cup. A round win is nice, but in the end, who cares? We have no draft capital to make a run again next season and likely lost both acquisitions from this season.
I think we have seen enough deadline adds for this team for draft capital we get nothing out of.
5.) 20 Feb 2023 22:04:16
@16 even winning one round wouldn't change anything in my mind at this point. It would have to be a SC appearance.
6.) 21 Feb 2023 12:32:01
@LL That's fair, an SC appearance would be a trade win. GM's job to build a team that gets you there, then it's up to the players and coach to turn it into a win.
19 Feb 2023 00:53:17
I can't help but wonder if Jonathan Toews wouldn't have provided the same level of play and similar abilities for the Leafs as Ryan O'Reilly (-24), at half the price.
That would have left a 2023 - 1st round pick to go hunting for an upgrade on defense.
1.) 19 Feb 2023 11:31:13
Stop it water Buffalo
Just stop it.
2.) 19 Feb 2023 20:57:58
I don't like Dubas either, but I do like the O'Reilly trade. Give credit where it's due.
3.) 24 Feb 2023 17:16:01
Toews himself said hes suffering effects from c.v. no guarantee hes comign back.
19 Feb 2023 00:06:46
A week after declaring he didn't want to trade a first round pick for rental players, Kyle Dubas did just that.
"I don't think it is sustainable for the very long run, but for where we are at right now, we have to do what we have to do," said Dubas. "I'd be lying if I stood up here and said it wasn't a concern of mine ...
Two (2) first round picks in Dubas's six year tenure as GM.
Rasmus Sandin and Rodion Amirov.
The rest were traded.
How's that for a long term plan?
Dubas was gifted the team's nucleus of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly and Kadri.
Since then Leafs have won exactly zero (0) playoff rounds.
1.) 19 Feb 2023 11:34:10
Are you done water Buffalo?
If the leafs win the cup in 17 games you would still diss Dubas for not wining it in 16 games…
19 Feb 2023 00:00:59
A week after declaring he didn't want to trade a first round pick for rental players, Kyle Dubas did just that.
Need I say more?
1.) 19 Feb 2023 11:34:33
please don’t say more.
2.) 19 Feb 2023 18:02:03
WaterBuffalo has proposed trading away many previous first round picks Leafs made. Hypocrisy at its finest.
I doubt you’d do any better being a GM in this position.
3.) 24 Feb 2023 17:20:39
the window to win is NOW. Draft Picks and Knies and the rest of your prospects are for the future. I am not a fan of Dubas but I dont crticize him for bolstering the line up at the cost of picks and prospects. Hes living in the NOW. If it works great. If it doesnt well they have a few options with some great pieces in their line up to use as assets. I think everyone knows including he that if he doesnt go deep in these playoffs and at least make a mark to build off of for the next season he and many others are gone.
waterbuffalo49's rumour replies
20 Mar 2023 00:57:33
O’Reilly is 32 years of age.
The chances of any team in the leagues signing him for $7 - $9 million are slim and none.
If Leafs can resign him for 2 to a maximum of 3 years for no more than $4 great.
If not, let him walk.
Bunting is a 20 goal, 50 - 60 point player and will receive $4 from someone.
Can the Leafs afford that?
Matt Murray has to go so Leafs can use his cap hit to resign Samsonov, a far better goaltender.
Trading for Murray was another Mrazek moment for Dubas and it is now either a buyout or a draft day trade with Leafs sending their 1st round pick to someone for a 2nd or 3rd.
20 Mar 2023 00:48:16
Great idea!
Leafs will become the oldest team in the league with those signings!
17 Mar 2023 00:35:48
I had Dawson Mercer, Braden Schneider and Kaiden Guhle all rated ahead of Amirov in the 2020 draft.
Amirov was another 165lbs skilled winger which Leafs had a surplus of.
Didn’t like Dubas’ selection at all.
That said, trading Nylander would leave a huge hole on Right Wing with no one in Leafs prospect pool to fill it.
An interesting but risky move as Leafs become a one line team with Tavares centering Lafreniere and Jarnkrok for a 2nd line!
14 Mar 2023 01:46:24
Without Cooley to eventually replace Matthews as Leafs #1, then there is no deal!
12 Mar 2023 14:06:04
David mackin.
Pastranak got $11.25 so there is little doubt that Nylander will get $10 from someone.
waterbuffalo49's banter replies
24 Mar 2023 01:04:22
Sandin may well be another Mason Marchment moment.
That said though Sandin has 12 points in 9 games played with the Capitals he is a - 5 so his warts are still visible.
24 Mar 2023 00:59:14
I have never been a fan of the Shoot Out.
Start OT at 4 x 4 for 5 minutes.
If still tied then 5 minutes of 3 x 3.
After 10 minutes a tie would result in both teams being awarded a point!
14 Jun 2022 03:49:53
Yes to NJ Devils 2nd overall.
Yes to Arizona 3rd overall.
Unfortunately I can’t see either of those teams trading one of Shane Wright, Slafkovsky or Logan Cooley for a highly skilled but soft, right wing!
14 Jun 2022 03:44:05
Clifford and Simmons?
I thought they had played their way off the team with their abysmal performances against Tampa.
Maroon and Perry showed us what we need on the 4th line and it’s certainly not Clifford &/ or Simmons.
Also, Robertson is a Left Wing not a right wing and Kerfoot needs to be upgraded.
Where do Sandin and Liljegren fit on this team?
They are the only NHL caliber, future prospects that Leafs have on defense.