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waterbuffalo49's rumours posts with other poster's replies to waterbuffalo49's rumours posts

 

29 Feb 2024 01:53:22
Hopefully the Tanev to Dallas trade doesn't cause a knee jerk reaction, leading to Treliving giving up valuable assets to acquire Dumba.
Dumba is sporting an abysmal -14 (worst on his team) and has reportedly been Coyotes weakest defender this season.
Trading for Dumba would be akin to signing Klingberg in my opinion.
Matt Roy, Sean Walker or Will Borgen would all be better choices than Dumba.

My dream is for Leafs to acquire Adam Larsson.

To Leafs: Adam Larsson

To Seattle: 2024 - 1st, 2024 - 3rd, Topi Niemala

If necessary to complete the deal Leafs could include Seattles choice of one of; Tverberg, Voit, Hirvonen, Lisowsky or Grebyonkin
Cap balancing would need to be done.

Reilly - Larsson
Benoit - MCCabe
Brodie - Liljegren
Giordano

waterbuffalo49

1.) 29 Feb 2024 02:48:42
I wouldn't give up Topi right now. Man he looks good in the A.

My thoughts are well known though, I'd do almost nothing. Maybe a minor deal for someone like Peeke.


2.) 29 Feb 2024 04:08:01
I do like Larsson maybe leafs could offer a different prospect than niemala to get a deal done.


3.) 29 Feb 2024 13:31:48
I personally think Niemela if makes the show, he would be equivalent to Lily. I don’t have a problem letting him go for Larson (with term) plus a 1st in a weak draft.


4.) 29 Feb 2024 14:11:22
If Seattle is looking at getting younger, they may do it. Cap as you said, is obviously an issue for the Leafs.


5.) 29 Feb 2024 14:58:38
I really like Larsson, not huge on giving up Nimiela though. Our defense has consistently been thin and he is our best D Prospect.


6.) 29 Feb 2024 16:37:55
Not giving up 1st for Larson or Nem.


 

 

16 Feb 2024 11:17:05
To Flyers: 2024 - 1st round pick, 2024 - 3rd round pick, Nick Robertson, Topi Niemala, Brodie's expiring contract to cover the cap hits

To Leafs: Nick Seeler, Sean Walker

Reilly - Ealker
Seeler - McCabe
Benoit - Liljegren
Giordano - Timmins

I realize that both Seeler and Walker are UFAs this summer but with Brodie's $5M, Domi's
$3M and Bertuzzi's $5.5M off the books Leafs should be able to resign one, if not both of them.

waterbuffalo49

1.) 16 Feb 2024 13:13:05
Seems like a lot to give up for two expiring D when neither are a true top pair D-man. Seeler plays with heart, but he has been a 3rd pair D his whole career and Walker pretty much a #4D. Asking two guys to play above their normal ask is a lot.


 

 

13 Feb 2024 01:27:41
To Seattle: Niemala, Minten, 2024- 3rd
Or
To Seattle: Niemala, 2024 - 1st, 2024 - 3rd

To Leafs: Adam Larsson

Leafs are badly in need of a defensive defenseman to play on the top pairing with Morgan Reilly.
Larsson fits the bill to a "T"
This allows Brodie to slide down the lineup

Reilly - Larsson
Benoit - McCabe
Brodie - Liljegren
Or
Reilly - Larsson
Brodie - McCabe
Benoit - Liljegren

waterbuffalo49

1.) 13 Feb 2024 03:16:29
Looking at tomorrow lineup Jarnknok is a scratch

Gregor Domi Robertson

Make up third line . Keefe is too slow to figure things out. I hate the way Bertuzzi plays as well .


This team was ruined by Treliving signings

Domi is fine
Reaves it’s small payout not a major blow
Bertuzzi is a disaster just happy it’s only 1 year
Klingberg was even worse.


2.) 13 Feb 2024 10:13:05
WB49 I have been after Larsson since the summer but they won’t listen to me. Lol. I think Niemela and a 1st should be enough maybe add a 4th or 5th. I agree that he would be one of the best fits though. Get a Seeler and all of a sudden our D don’t look too bad. (Once Rielly gets back.


3.) 13 Feb 2024 12:23:30
Hate to give up Minten and Niemela for a D-man only signed for one more season. Prefer the 2nd option, but not sure that gets it done. Prices for top pair D-men have been crazy and Larsson is only at $4M per which should up his value.


4.) 13 Feb 2024 20:09:41
Hopefully the 2nd option would be enough.
Definitely would love Larsson, especially at $4M to pair with Rielly.
Leafs need to find some lower salaries to help fit into their top heavy structure. Maybe somehow target Brogen as well.


 

 

13 Feb 2024 01:02:10
To Columbus: Robertson, Minten, 2024 - 3rd, expiring contract(s)

To Leafs: Jenner and Peeke

With Jenner to fill the 3rd line center slot Minten can be spared
Peeke brings some depth and physicality to the RH side of Leafs defense.

waterbuffalo49

1.) 13 Feb 2024 10:14:47
I like the trade WB49. But I hope we update our blue line before our F depth.


2.) 13 Feb 2024 12:29:28
Who is the expiring contract Leafs are sending? I'm sure that makes a difference to Columbus and the Leafs and the value of the trade. I like the targets, although this is like a rebuild kind of trade for Columbus and considering the signings they made in the summer, they were looking to contend. Maybe they change directions and do something like this.


 

 

04 Feb 2024 00:22:30
To LA Kings: Samsonov ($3.55, UFA)

To Leafs: Matt Roy ($3.15, UFA)

LA needs/desperate for goaltending and Samsonov appears to be back on the upswing. With no future contract commitment beyond this season, Samsonov might tempt LA.

Leafs need defense, particularly on the right side.
LA has a number of young defensemen they wish to give minutes to and will not likely be resigning Matt Roy.

Reilly - Roy
McCabe - Liljegren
Benoit - Brodie
Giordano - Timmins

waterbuffalo49

1.) 04 Feb 2024 15:22:43
I like the target, Roy would certainly be an asset on the first pairing.

I do believe that LA is very desperate for a goalie so the Leafs could get a draft pick as well as a prospect included with this deal.

My only reservation to making this deal is what are your plans for backing up Jones? Jones has done well but like last year he started to fade in the second half of the season.


2.) 04 Feb 2024 17:52:57
Better hope Woll plays well when he returns . No guarantee of that.


3.) 05 Feb 2024 15:25:38
Why is LA desperate for a goalie? Talbot is having a solid season and Rittich has been very good in his recent call-up. If giving up goals is a problem, trading a top 4 D won't help them as they rely heavily on their top 4 D-men. I think the coaching change tells more about where management sees issues.


 

 

 

waterbuffalo49's banter posts with other poster's replies to waterbuffalo49's banter posts

 

29 Feb 2024 00:32:38
It appears Calgary has traded Tanev to Dallas for a 2nd round pick, a prospect (Artem Grushnikov) and a conditional 3rd round pick.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

21 Feb 2024 04:06:30
For all those Leaf fans who wish to give up limited assets for MAF:

Marc Andre Fleury
29 shots against
5 goals allowed
SV% .828

waterbuffalo49

1.) 21 Feb 2024 13:01:38
WB49

No desire for Fleury. Have not wanted Fleury for the past 3 seasons that he somehow keeps coming up in trade props.


2.) 21 Feb 2024 17:41:50
I'm not even sure why people wanted Fleury 10 years ago. One of the most overrated goalies of the last 40 years imo.


 

 

20 Feb 2024 02:20:28
For all the Liljegren haters:

When Liljegren plays over 20 minutes a night, his scoring catapults him into a much higher tier, production-wise. During the 2022-23 season, he averaged over 20 minutes of ice-time in 19 games and tallied 3 goals and 8 assists. This season, he has seen 15 games with extended ice-time and has tallied 9 assists along the way. It's a small sample, however that's 0.588 points per game, which would have him at a 48-point pace in an 82-game season.

Conversely when he plays less than 20 minutes a night, he tallied only 7 points in 48 games in 2022-23 and just 5 points in 21 games this season for a paltry 0.174 points per game. In a full 82-game season, that would leave him at just 14 points, a far cry from his true potential.


With Morgan Rielly serving his 5-game suspension, Liljegren has been thrust into a top-pair role alongside T.J. Brodie and it should come as no surprise that he has tallied 5 assists in his last 2 games. He played 18:48 against the St. Louis Blues, then a season-high 24:27 against the Philadelphia Flyers, before seeing 22:24 of ice-time against Anaheim on Saturday.

He had seen over 20 minutes of ice-time just once prior to Rielly's suspension in a span of 9 games. He had no points, was a plus-2, and had just 11 shots on goal in 17:28 ATOI.

waterbuffalo49

1.) 20 Feb 2024 10:11:14
WB he has had many more bad games than good. If you want to make a comment on his improvement, let’s talk after the Vegas/ Col games and if he still looks good I’ll give him his props.


2.) 20 Feb 2024 13:25:14
My issue has never been with Lilly's ability to put up points. It's the defensive zone breakdowns, horrible first passes, and bad giveaways that concern me.


3.) 20 Feb 2024 13:30:42
LOL. Talk about skewing the stats to support a narrative. In the pervious 13 games that Lily played over 20 mins in a night this season he had only 4 pts and was a -1. That's a 25 pt pace and -6 rating for a full season which is inline with his previous years when playing over 20 mins a night. Of the 21 other games he played less than 20 mins a night this season he had 5 pts and a +3 for a 20 pt and +12 pace for a season.

There is a reason Lily doesn't normally get over 20 mins a game. It's because he is best suited as a 3rd pair D. To say that, doesn't mean I hate him. He has had chances to play further up the lineup and has been overwhelmed in any extended length of time.

In his last 3 games Lily has played well over 20 mins a night with 5 points and a +4. That's good. 2 of those points have come on the PP which is on fire let's not forget. Brodie has 1 pt and a +7. McCabe 2 pts and a +4. Brodie is actually a +12 in his last 5 games and that is one of your favourite stats to use but I don't hear anything about Brodie for the Norris trophy or even that he should be on the top pair. Brodie actually leads the Leafs D with a +19, but you want to trade him, No? . Next closest is McCabe, Lily and Gio at +6. Brodie is +13 more than any other Leafs D without sheltered minutes. Doesn't that make Brodie an exceptional D-man? Why was Brodie a +7 and Lily only a +4 when they have been partners over the past 3 games?

Using your cherry picked stats let's look at Connor Timmins. 16gp 6pts +5 only 15:35 of ice time per game. On pace for 31 pts and a +26 while only getting 15:35 of ice time per game. Prior to Lily's last 3 games he was on pace for 22 pts a +5 rating at about 18:30 mins of ice time per game. Timmins was doing more than Lily with much less ice time. Timmins also has the highest takeaway to giveaway ratio on the whole Leafs D-core at .9.

Guess who has the worst giveaway to takeaway ratio of the Leafs regular D-core. That's right, Liljegren. 8 takeaways to 25 giveaways for a .32 ratio. Brodie .38, McCabe .34, Rielly .44, Gio .38 and Benoit .75.

Let's look at O-zone starts ev strength. Lily 60.5% O-zone, Brodie 46.9%, McCabe 47%, Rielly 54.7%, Gio 53%, Benoit 36.5% and let's throw in Timmins at 62.2%. Out of the regulars, notice anyone in particular getting the most sheltered zone starts? Again, Liljegren.

Liljegren = Sheltered minutes but the worst takeaway to giveaway ratio and wasn't producing much points which are factors in why he isn't farther up the lineup. Timmins was also getting sheltered minutes, was on a better scoring pace than Lily and a way better takeaway to giveaway ratio of .9 (best on the Leafs D-core), yet he sits while Lily plays.

Using these stats, shouldn't the Leafs sit Lily and play Timmins instead?


 

 

05 Feb 2024 01:24:20
The Probability of Playing More Than 200 NHL Games by Position!

1st round:
F - 35%
D - 43%
G - 33%

2nd round:
F - 18%
D - 12%
G - 25%

3rd round:
F - 17%
D - 14%
G - 8%

4th round:
F - 8%
D - 8%
G - 11%

waterbuffalo49

1.) 05 Feb 2024 12:26:58
I am assuming you are showing this in the manner to show the importance of keeping 1st round picks?

Not sure over what span this from, but not surprising. A little more drop off from 1st to 2nd round than I thought it was in the past, but you have at least 200 NHL games being played in there.

One thing to remember with these numbers is the amount of players needed per position. 1st rounder for D and goalie are high because each team only carries 6/ 7 D and 2 goalies compared to 12/ 13 forwards. The 1st and 2nd round are typically dominated by drafting centres and defenceman number wise compared to other positions. Centres get drafted, but may play wing at the NHL level, but rarely a winger is drafted and plays centre at the NHL level.

If my impression of your intent is correct, I agree that the Leafs should hold onto their 1st unless getting a player with term or more developed prospect.


2.) 05 Feb 2024 13:10:08
Solid interpretation of the numbers RLF.

Interesting the very small difference between 2 and 3 for F and D. Almost virtually the same. But it could be interesting to analyze the numbers on players drafted in first half versus second in each round.


 

 

08 Jan 2024 01:43:24
For all of the Liljegren haters!

Liljegren among the league leaders at 5 x 5 since 2021 - 2022

Perhaps the most underrated player on the Toronto Maple Leafs right now is defenseman Timothy Liljegren.

After becoming a regular name in the lineup in 2021-22, Liljegren has been one of the best defensemen in the league and is a part of a select group of defensemen who have excelled with 2000+ minutes at 5v5, a 55+ GF%, and a 55+ xGF%.

The list only includes 10 names that range from Cale Makar, Charlie McAvoy, Jaccob Slavin, MacKenzie Weegar, and Liljegren, among a few others. His numbers are slightly better than those of Aaron Ekblad, Miro Heiskanen, and Chris Tanev

Liljegren's 2023-24 season might be the best of his young career to date as he has been on the ice for just eight goals against 5v5 in 20 games. Since last season, he is 7th in GA/60 among all defensemen who have played over 1000 minutes and he owns the lowest GA/60 of any Leafs defenseman this year after having the lowest GA/60 last year as well.

The points might not be there with regularity just yet, he has 7 points through 20 games, but is averaging a career-high 19:26 TOI, has become a mainstay on the back end and arguably owns one of the best value contracts in the league with a cap hit of just $1.4 million.

Trading Liljegren for a 2nd round pick, as has been suggested is simply ludicrous!

waterbuffalo49

1.) 08 Jan 2024 13:05:40
He has been our 4th best defence man this year after Rielly, McCabe and Benoit. I don’t believe in all that stats crap. How do you compare a 5th/ 6th D on a great team to a 1/ 2 D on a bad team that gets all the tough match ups? He is ok across the board and I’m fine with keeping him, it’s Brodie that needs to move.


2.) 08 Jan 2024 14:12:08
WB49.

Your love for Liljegren is admirable. But you flip flop on other players almost as much as Mackin. You just took a pot shot at Weegar in a trade prop and then 2 props later say you would love to get Weegar.

Again, how about some context to your post here. You often use +/ - to evaluate a player. Liljegren is tied for the worst +/ - amongst all Leafs regular D-men (was worst until last game where he picked up a +) . Why don't you mention that? You do about every other player.

With Liljegren in the lineup the Leafs are 10-7-3. With Liljegren out of the lineup the Leafs were 10-3-4. How is it possible that the Leafs actually had a better record using Lagesson and Lavoie over Lily who is one of the best D-men in the League (according to you)?

If you look at who you are showing Lily in the company of, they are all top D-men playing tough minutes. What your stats show is that Lily is doing very well in certain stats in the context of the minutes he plays and the team he plays on. Stats cherry picked by you to show how well he is doing.
Translation-As a 3rd pair D-man on the Toronto Maple Leafs when given 58% of his starts at even strength in the O-zone and sheltered minutes he is doing well in certain stats.

Lets compare on the Leafs, Lily to a guy who has played similar games, Benoit.
Benoit has 9 goals against 5on5 in 23 games while starting 56.1% in the D-zone. Lily has 8 goals against while starting 58.5% in the O-zone. Benoit is also playing tougher minutes than Lily.
Lily 312.1 mins 5on5. Benoit 310.7 mins 5on5. Lily a +2 5on5. Benoit a +1 5on5. Benoit 14-5-4 W/ L. Liljegren 10-7-3 W/ L.
Liljegren 20 games. 7 pts 49 blocks. 25 hits. 2 takeaways 12 giveaways
Benoit 23 games. 1 pt 38 blocks 65 hits 8 TK 6 GV
Liljegren gets PP time where he has 2 pts. Benoit gets no PP time.

Lily has got more minutes this year because of injuries to other players. If Klingberg was healthy, Lily gets no PP time, which is over a 1 minute a game this year. Again, due to others injured, Lily also got some games on the top pair with Rielly, where he didn't fair very well I might add. His PK time is higher this year because Gio was out for a while and McCabe missed some games.

You even called Lily a 3rd pair D-men with 2nd pair potential recently in one of your posts. That post is sandwiched between him being the 2nd best D-man on the Leafs and now you call him one of the best in the League. You don't see any contradiction here?

He is a 3rd pair D-man and being used as such. Honestly, I can't imagine a 3rd pair D-man being worth much more than a 2nd round pick. Since you believe this is ridiculous (which was my suggestion as you well know), you must be thinking Lily is worth way more than that.
Since you feel a 2nd alone is a ridiculous underpay. What 3rd pair D-man are you willing to give a 1st+ or a 2nd++ for?

Don't worry, I know you won't answer the question. You prefer to post and then walk away from discussion, especially when your narrative gets busted or you call another poster or their thoughts ridiculous etc. Yet you say I am the one with the issue with people disagreeing with me. At least I will respond to others and even give the other person who disagrees credit if they punch a whole in my theory.


 

 

 

waterbuffalo49's rumour replies

 

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29 Feb 2024 01:41:52
I proposed this exact trade two weeks ago.
I like the idea a lot.
Samsonov in a less pressure filled environment (Toronto vs LA) might be the answer to Kings goaltending woes and Matt Roy does not appear to be a candidate to be resigned this summer.
What’s to lose?
Win/ Win for both teams.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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29 Feb 2024 01:18:39
Savard didn’t win the Cup the team he played for won a Cup.
Don’t understand how that is a significant factor.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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29 Feb 2024 01:16:40
With the potential trading of Lyubushkin why wouldn’t Ducks insert Lindstrom into their lineup to see what they have instead of going with Timmins who has never yet in his career been more than a placeholder #7?

You have pointed out that Lindstrom is a defensive RHD.
Wouldn’t he be a more suitable a replacement for the defensive Lyubushkin than Timmins who has never been noted for his defense?

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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29 Feb 2024 01:07:47
Liljegren is a better defenseman than Peeke or Bean and still improving.

Trading Jarnkrok leaves the Leafs with only Marner and Nylander on RW and no right wingers in the bottom 6 (unless you count Reaves as an NHL caliber player) .

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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29 Feb 2024 01:04:23
You have a goaltender coming in (Saros) but no goaltender going out so Leafs end up with Saros, Woll, Samsonov and Jones.
Leafs can put Jones on waivers and probably lose him but that still leaves them carrying 3 goaltenders?
With Brodie playing his natural left side and Liljegren playing the right they have been Leafs top defensive pairing lately.
A 1st, a 3rd plus Niemala removes 3 of Leafs top 5 assets.
You are making a trade with Lauzon for Liljegren when Lauzon is another LHD while Liljegren is Leafs only RHD plus adding Leafs best defensive prospect in Niemala who also happens to be a RHD.
This trade leaves the Leafs with only LHD no RHD.
Reilly, MCCabe, Benoit, Lauzon, Giordano, Lagesson
Probably not a good idea?
Leafs are trading Jarnkrok a RW when they are already short a true RW in their bottom 6 (I do not consider Reaves a true NHL, RW) .
This trade would leave only Marner and Nylander as right wings for the Leafs yet having an abundance of left shooting players in Knies, Bertuzzi, Domi, McMann, Trenin, Gregor, Steeves?

It is not that I don’t like the targets but I feel this trade unbalances the Leafs more than they already are!

waterbuffalo49

 

 

 

waterbuffalo49's banter replies

 

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22 Jun 2023 00:10:43
If Leafs could sign FA Brett Pesce 28, 6’3”, 206lbs, then I would be okay with them buying out Brodie.
Otherwise there are few, quality, RHD available making Brodie somewhat irreplaceable.
Another RHD consideration (not to replace Brodie but to add) is Scott Mayfield.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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08 Jun 2023 05:26:40
Dubas should have been targeting Acciari and Barbashev at the trade deadline not O’Reilly who was -21 for the regular season and -3 in the playoffs.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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05 Jun 2023 11:07:05
Are you suggesting he should or will sign Lucic (god forbid), Reaves (unnecessary), Johnson (terrible), Robinson (? ), Schenn (okay), Dahlstrom (why? ) .

With Samsonov and Woll, Stolarz will not be a Leaf.

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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20 Apr 2023 02:35:22
Have to agree.
Bunting (Kadri) has probably bought his ticket out of town.
Slow motion replay does indicate that Buntings hit on Cernak was accidental and unintentional.
The replay conclusively shows that Bunting was looking away from Cernak and focusing on the puck.
Not an excuse!
It was a hit to the head, intentional or not and worthy of a major penalty.
Just not convinced it was worthy of a 3 game suspension.

If Bunting, and Kerfoot are not back next season it leaves two openings at LW.
Can Knies, McMann, Steeves or Robertson step up or will the Leafs have to dip into free agency?

waterbuffalo49

 

 

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15 Apr 2023 02:59:52
“40 goals on what seemed like a down year. Good on Willy to reach 40 as well. ”

Funny, but I felt this was Willie Styles best year yet with the Leafs.
The opposite of a down year in my opinion.
He was the most involved he has ever been as a Leaf.
Unfortunately, with 40 goals and 87 points, I am sure his agent will be asking for over $10 million and it might not be an amicable negotiation.
Might we see Nylander traded at the draft?

waterbuffalo49