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06 Nov 2020 17:17:41
I got to thinking how we got Dermott on the team. Basically, through a couple moves of trading down at the draft, Leafs traded away the pick that Philly used to get Konecny and the pick Columbus used to draft Carlsson, while Leafs ended up with Bracco, Dzierkals, and Dermott.

Already, the optics look bad enough given what Konecny has turned into. Which raises the question: why didn’t Dubas want to draft Konecny? Konecny is everything Dubas looks for in a player. Surely he must have been on his radar. Unless Dubas is not as good an evaluator of talent I give him the credit for, he HAD to have known what Konecny was capable of. So passing on him is a major indictment against Dubas already in this trade.

The optics are made worse when you realize that Dermott is the only player remaining from that trade still on the Leafs. The other two are gone with nothing left to show.

And as good a player as Dermott is, Carolina drafted Aho with the very next pick. Again, a stereotypical Dubas player. Dubas HAD to have known what Aho was capable of. Drafting Aho would have more than made up for missing Konecny. Missing both is unacceptable.

To make matters even worse, defensemen drafted in the 2nd round after Dermott include Carlo, Cernak, Andersson, and Dunn. All these guys are arguably better than Dermott now or will ever will be.

I don’t really like the concept of trading down to begin with. If the guy chosen with the pick you traded away is a success, you look bad. But you look even worse when the players you pick bust. And it looks even worse when you miss out on players that were drafted after yours that hit and were more successful than your picks. Dubas struck out on all three with this trade.

Dermott is a fine player. He’s a great player. But he alone can’t save this trade for Dubas. And now that Dubas has gone in a different direction bringing in Muzzin and Sandin/ Lehtonen, even Dermott is likely to be traded soon, and we will have nothing left. Dermott meanwhile probably goes on to be a very good 2nd pair player on another team.

To date, this was the worst trade Dubas has made yet, and is the second biggest mistake next to signing Tavares.

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06 Nov 2020 20:40:52
Trading down is far better in my opinion. The difference between a player picked at 65 and 74 is very, very small in general. Getting an extra pick is of much larger value to me.

That said, it's all hit or miss though. Drafting inst an exact science.

07 Nov 2020 02:50:55
I think if you are trading down in the second or third rounds, you have a valid point. But when you are trading down from the first round to the 2nd and 3rd rounds, you lose a lot more opportunity. The difference between 65 and 74 might not be large, but the difference between 24 (Konecny) and 68 (Dzierkals) is quite large.

To me, the draft is about scouting and the players. When you start talking about odds and probabilities, that sounds a lot like gambling talk. I’d rather not have a GM that thinks every move he makes is a bet. The draft is not a roulette table.

07 Nov 2020 05:19:08
Gambling talk is what the draft is though essentially. We have all seen late rounders turn into absolute studs and 1st rounders turn to garbage.

I do agree though, trading down if your not getting decent value is not something I'm on favor of.

One thing I do not possess though is Dubas scouting reports. So I'll say, I believe trading down is generally a good idea in late round situations and a good idea in late first round picks but only if you don't see anyone on the board you want or someone like Brian Burke makes you an offer you can't refuse. Thanks burkey!

07 Nov 2020 13:12:10
To be fair dubas wasn’t the only gm picking that draft. Remember with Nonis just fired in April for refusing to trade Kessel, both dubas and hunter ran the show together.

Even with his brothers praise of marner hunter wanted hanifin and dubas wanted marner. Dubas won that battle

With provorov and werenski off the board hunter wanted chabot. Things looked great as 4 forwards then chabot jr partner zboril followed. By this point hunter knew trading up has to be done to get chabot. Toronto’s next pick after 24 isn’t until 65. Dealing the 2 might only get a team up to pick 20. That’s not enough. Hunter could add 2016 2nd round pick but teams generally don’t deal future picks on draft day so he had to watch draft unfold.

At 18 instead of picking Ottawa 67 star, Ottawa took hunters hope Thomas chabot. At 21 Ottawa dealt lehner and legwand for buffalos acquired 1st rd pick. Ottawa chose Colin white not kovecny. Why? The 2013 1st overall pick in ohl draft and very skilled offensive threat put up good 1st year numbers and even won rookie of the year. but in year 2 the 2014-15 season he didn’t improve much even after being named captain.

A late season shoulder injury could of been a factor but he was only out 4 games and came back in game 2 of round 1 playoffs to get 10 points in 5 games games but Ottawa still lost to Niagara in 6. What gives? Why wouldn’t Ottawa draft a fan favourite in Ottawa?

Did Murray and the sens know something no one else knew. After all hunters best player of only year he coached the knights (bo horvat) is 2nd cousins and very close to kovecny, so close Travis helped with equipment and travelled with team when able as a 13 year old during London’s 2011-12 season that very season hunter coached. You’d think hunter had good vibes with this kid. However right after Ottawa picked white and knowing kovecnys shoulder issues hunter still wanted Travis. He insisted but once again lost. Why?

January 16th 2014 vs Ottawa a certain someone took out one of dubas lead top ohl teams better players in Michael Bunting (nhl draft eligible that summer) in a non called illegal knee on knee hit. His name you guessed Travis kovecny and Toronto (more importantly shanahan agreeing with dubas) decided to trade 24th pick to philly for phillys acquired 29th pick and phillys acquired 61st pick.

Not bad movin 5 spots Down for last pick in 2nd round for a mid 20s pick when no one at 24 interests you. Then when 29 came around again nothing jumped out for either Gm. So now leafs deal this pick to Columbus for their original 2nd round pick 34th and evidently phillys 3rd round pick 68th. . So now again 5 spots and they get an extra early 3rd rounder when again no one interest them.

So then at 34 with hunter getting shafted now 2 times dubas took over. 2013-14 his best Sau team lost to Erie in playoffs 4 straight and this was when he first recogized Dermott who
was a blocking machine during the series and never let tolchinsky do a damn thing. The following year he wasn’t with team but was close to Sheldon Keefe. This 2014-15 team built by dubas was unstoppable. 110 freakin points. Best team that year even better than mcdavid team.

However again they lost to Erie only this time in conference finals. Sure Strome mcdavid debrincat were awesome but Dermott dominated that series. Not only did he stop saus best players he got 11 pts in 6 games. Keefe had no answer for him. This and this alone made dubas convince shanahan to take dermott over highly touted Dunn, Hintz and big Carlo, as well as honorable mentions Blackwood, cernak, greenway, guhle, Andersson, Guess that’s dubas biggest fault he is blinded by guys beating his old teams. Dumb dumb dumb. However shanahan allowed it. Don’t forget that.

Bracco to be fair was a good pick out of us program. He was great backup offensive plan if marner or nylander faulted. Great skill level for 61 overall. Too bad more became after he got booted out of boston college. OHL allowed him to become 1st player to play both ncaa and ohl even with his problem. Following a bad hazing incident in Kitchener and deal to Windsor soon after he still is a high end offensive player. His attitude is attributed to his bad addiction but that ain’t dubas fault. Neither is it dubas fault the guy went off the rails by getting addicted to raling
when joining the college ranks.

Now 3rd round why Nielsen? I mean he sucked and so did his team in 2014-15. Sure he did well following year but who wanted him at this time in life and why? Then dzierkrals. Sure leafs convinced him to play In Qmjhl after he was drafted but before that who was he? I mean outside of Cirelli this round sucked but leafs could of got both guys they drafted in this round in 6th round.

Lindgren WTF. Come on if you were watching Bracco and drafted Bracco you would of saw Caleb Jones . come on guys are u stupid. I understand missing Ethan bear he wasn’t great yet but he was better than Nielsen
at this point in life to be fair. 1st year eligible 129 points 5’10 forward qmjhl conor garland dubas guy I’m sure hunter liking big dudes said no to that

Now 5th round 90 point 19 yr old timasov. Screams dubas and not a bad pick since we all liked him. Wrong hunter pick and dubas dealt second he could

The rest who cares. My point it was 2 headed monster drafting and that never works

Shanahan I blame

Aho was there for the pick in at 34 yes but until 2016 under 20 tour with laine and pulijarv can u really recall his name? Be honest. If u think for a second I’ll ever believe you knew who he was in 2015 draft I call BS on you. He got 0 points in 5 games at world jrs. He was a defensive specialist on the Finns 3rd line that year. he became known for his 2016 gold performance with the other 2. Yeah that’s how you first knew about him so not drafting him isn’t anyone’s fault.

Blaming 1 guy for a draft he really wasn’t in charge of is silly. Trading up to get Biggs while giving up chance on Gibson with that very same pick is more ridiculous. Not putting a stipulation on a trade and in end giving up #2 overall pick is even dumber.

Leafs managed doing as they did in 2015 was playing with the odds

After all if you want to play this hypothetical blame on dubas let's put kovecny on leafs in 2016-17 playing behind nylander and marner and even brown. would he even make leafs. I think he wouldn’t
Then add in Kessel deal right after 2015 draft that landed kapanen does kovecny ever even make this leafs team in 2017-18 or does he end up much like Bracco due to kappy. Tough to say with hypotheticals now isn’t it.

07 Nov 2020 14:49:16
I do believe it was Hunter that insisted we draft Marner. I mean, let’s face it, Marner was on Hunters team. Hunter would know exactly what he had there. But I wasn’t in the office, so don’t know for fact. What we do know is that it was a Dubas that traded down to pick Dermott, Dzierkals, and Bracco. Optics are everything, and that trade looks bad all around.

The 2015 draft was a massive success all round. So many good players came out of that draft. Leafs got Marner, who was a can’t miss, and that’s about it. The rest of the guys, other than Dermott, didn’t amount to much. Timashov I liked his physical play, but as you said, not a Dubas guy, so first chance to be gone, he was.

Having Hunter and Dubas split the draft duties never made sense. They were diametrically opposed to he to build the team. They didn’t share the same vision, and it showed. The result: a bunch of wasted picks.

Too many Chiefs, not enough Indians.

07 Nov 2020 15:11:57
This entire site deals in hypotheticals. If it wasn’t for hypotheticals, this site wouldn’t exist.

07 Nov 2020 16:36:50
It was Babcock who wanted hanifin
Shanny wanted provorov
Dubas and hunter wanted marner

So they agreed on 1 thing and won
After that it was a crap show for 2 drafts lol

Hunter wanted big Dmen
Dubas wanted tiny scorers

Guess dubas won and got rid of every hunter influenced pick outside of marner and Matthews (odviously 1st, thank god no one wanted laine that woulda sucked) as soon as had the gm tag.



Hypotheticals is this site and that’s why I gave u the what if kovecny was drafted by leafs, he very well would of been buried like bracco was due to RW depth.

07 Nov 2020 17:18:19
The way I look at it, if you are going to trade down, then you best be sure the guys you pick are going to be damn good. They have to be better players than the guy that got picked in the spot originally held by you.

The thing is, the 2015 draft was so deep, that it actually could have worked. If there is was ever a draft to try and trade down, that was the one. Given the quality of players that were drafted in the second round that year, it is mind-numbing to think that the Leafs wiffed so bad. And that’s what makes this trade look even worse. Not only did Philly get Konecny, but Leafs also missed all those other great players in the second round, despite having four picks that round. Three of those guys were on Dubas. Nielsen I’ve always felt was Hunters choice, so that’s on him.

Hunter had the idea of drafting all those huge hulking defensemen. He was looking for the next Chara or Parayko. Always wondered if a guy like Gordeev or Rasanen could have been it if Leafs ever even tried to develop them. Instead they were all traded away and buried in favor if Dubas’ picks. Never even got the chance.

07 Nov 2020 19:03:44
You really think Dubas would hold it against Konecny so much that he wouldn’t draft him?

I admit, I am amazed at what you come up with Craigger. Both in a good way and in an incredulous way. You have a keen mind and are an astute observer and able to link players pasts together like a historian. You would be very good at “7 Degrees Of Kevin Bacon, NHL version”. Lol.

But sometimes when I read your stuff, I start thinking about that Mel Gibson movie with Julia Roberts and Patrick Stewart in it. The one about conspiracy theories. I think it was called “Conspiracy Theory”. And the reason I say this is because the way you present a topic, it makes sense. Not just here with the Konecny story, but in previous examples as well. But when you think about it for what it really is, you have to ask yourself, “would Dubas seriously be so petty as to pass on Konecny because of an incident that happened in junior? ”, or “would Kerfoot really hold off on his NHL career for three extra years because he didn’t want to sign with Jersey because of a school rivalry? ”. These guys are professionals. Once they move on and up, they need to leave the lower league stuff behind. That’s an immature attitude.

You always weave a story so elaborate and the points all connect and make sense. And yet, so do David Icke and Michael Tsarion and Jordan Maxwell. They can spin stories so elaborate that they have people believe in Chemtrails and Reptilians. Lol.

It’s definitely entertaining though. And definitely opens up a new way of thinking. An insiders look really. Not even Friedman provides as much insight as I get from reading you. In fact, I can’t think of a single analyst or commentator on tv provides half as much background as you do. Half the time I put stuff up just to provoke a reaction from someone like you or MarsBars, just to get the chatter going.

We might not always agree, but at least we agree to disagree civilly. And I love having you as the ying to my yang. Your insights always provide a lot of reflection and new way of looking at things that an outsider to the game like myself doesn’t have. And I thank you for that.

You haven’t got me to change my mind about either Dubas or my low opinion on this trade. But I definitely enjoyed the challenge. And for that I thank you.

07 Nov 2020 23:44:20
I have to say, Craiggers is probably my favorite contributor lol. Sometimes when I think it's such a straight up conversation it becomes an epic saga full of betrayal, scorn and envy.

Love the contributions in ways I have never nor would ever, think of.

08 Nov 2020 13:42:00
The whole kovecny thing was that there was a shoulder issue and if Ottawa passed not once but twice (why did they pick Colin white who was projected top 50 but not 1st round prospect) on a guy playing in their backyard what was the problem. Seemed Toronto was on fence with him so dubas made that fence fall down by voting no due to a knee on knee. If not for shoulder and such uncertainty with this pick leafs would of taken him. Dubas remembering the knee hit probably didn’t help when kovecny was such a toss up. Also leafs had nylander and now marner as RW top prospects in system and don’t forget Kessel was still on team at this point. They knew they were going to attempt to deal him but for now Kessel was their 1st line RW. That’s a lot of right wingers to draft another so high

As far as dermott I think his dominance in 2 straight playoff series against the 2 best teams dubas made in Sau got him drafted by Toronto. Yes maybe 30 spots early but those playoff performances were pretty legendary

With leafs drafting bracco at 61 he was simply a backup insurance player. If nylander and or marner don’t work out. Leafs couldn't use a 1st round pick on an insurance pick but 61 why not. Bracco was committed to Boston College so they had up to 4 years to worry about this player. Skill wise he was insane. By far 2nd best winger on that US under 18 team. Bracco could actually score as much as set up on this team. To bad things started going downhill once he got himself booted out of college.

Nielsen and dzierkals weren’t on many gms radars let alone 3rd round radar. I do agree hunter loved his big Dmen but stating he was trying to find the next parayko is a bit off. Parayko was just finishing college and played some time in AHL before this draft. Parayko wasn’t established quite yet. No one knew who he was until the following year after this draft.

With Connor garland getting 129 points going into his 1st draft eligable year that seemed like an easy dubas pick to me
Also, since bracco was odviously scouted by leafs that means the whole USA under 18 team was as well. With Matthews tkachuk and mciavoy not eligable till next draft meant roslovic, white, greenway, bracco, fischer, were looked at in great detail. Another guy getting top 4 minutes and available for a long time was Caleb Jones. Just a head scratcher

Yes this draft turned out loaded with great players for the choosing. Unfortunetly not many were projected to turn into what they all became. Going into draft it was much like 2020 draft. Mcdavid eichel then 3-6 could of went any order then 7-8 then 9-12 any order. 13-70 were all a tier below the guys taken from 9-12 but still very good depending on how your team scouted and was looking for from 13 until a bit into the 3rd round was a crap shoot. No one really knew how good any would end up so trading down was a good strategy.

Due to where I’m from and league I see addictively I tend to remember classic ohl moments. Since 2010 I’ve also had the privledge of seeing the USA under 18 teams do their thing out of Michigan so I remember those stories as well, not much more to add .

Yes some things I write seem to be of conspiracy but when being put in a spot where you must choose between 2 items sometimes an old memory helps sway you one direction. It doesn’t make you less professional. This memory that dubas had may or may not of been the deciding factor but it is what it is. Like I keep repeating if not for the known shoulder injury and the fact Ottawa passed on kovecny not once but twice (white was 3 line C for USA by the way) made that pick at 24 become a hard choice.

Hunter liked kovecny as the only team he coached in London was lead by horvat whom is 2nd cousins and very close with kovecny. I saw with my own eyes kovecny as a 13 year old helping that London team with equipment. So in my opinion Hunter didn’t care about shoulder injury and wanted kovecny.

Dubas also knowing of injury then and only then in my opinion remembered that dirty hit and went the other way with this pick

That’s all.

08 Nov 2020 23:15:07
Geez craigger12
Hate to ask you a simple question
I need to book a day off work to read your replies.

09 Nov 2020 10:12:26
Well when u got a grade 1 reading level guess it might take that long for u to read a 10 paragraph colomn

Simple minded people ask simple minded questions therefore get simple minded answers

Open minded people get the truth.

05 Nov 2020 21:24:09
Hire Mitch Korn. Offer him 100 million if that's what it takes. The Islanders seen to make zero's into hero's. Kind of the opposite of here.

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08 Nov 2020 16:49:41
Yeah seems briere is last coach of Babcock Leaf team left. Guess dubas wants to keep 1 last guy around to fire if it doesn’t work out instead of blaming himself or his main man Sheldon Keefe

Never understood how a 5’8 ex goalie can help a 6’4 goalie out. I understood when he was ‘trying’ to make Bernier better. Once Babcock was let go I thought a new Goalie Coach would be brought in as well

Mr. Korn has been around forever. Never go wrong with that tor sure.

08 Nov 2020 19:58:09
Agreed craiggers.

My main issue with goaltending in Toronto is that no matter who is drafted I'm not seeing development. Clearly the system is doing something right for every other position so what's the deal with goaltending? At a certain point I would love to see a change made.

I'm sure most of us could name 5 goalie prospects that we thought would eventually make an impact. Even goalies brought in that turn to poo or even just regress once they get here. Who's head does that fall on?

05 Nov 2020 16:06:27
I like the Brodie signing a lot. It is the first move that Dubas made that I’m actually excited about. All the other moves this year is pillow talk - It’s populist moves at best. We “increase” grit and toughness. We bring in Thornton and Spezza (and all the associated jersey sales money) . A bunch of cheap plugs for the bottom six and 7th/ 8th defenseman. So long as these guys can do the proverbial “treading of water” and live up to their replacement level league minimum contracts, then we should be ok. They are the white noise.

None of those moves matter. The only move that is of importance is the Brodie move. Brodie was the best guy we could afford and the one that could best fill the position of greatest need. He will easily be the best partner Rielly ever had. I assume Giordano could have hand pick who he wanted to be his partner for all those years, and he chose Brodie every single time. And it’s not like Calgary didn’t have other very good defensemen. Because they did. And still do. So that tells me something right there. If Norris trophy winner and Captain of the team trusts Brodie to be his right hand man all those years to support him while he does what he does best, knowing Brodie has his back, then we know he can do the same for Rielly.

This is about making Rielly his best. What Hainsey did for Rielly, I have got to assume Brodie can do better. If Rielly is all healed, we should see another Norris candidate season from him. When he is at the top of his game, he is easily a top 10 Norris candidate player at his position in the league.

There are questions surrounding Brodie’s age and performance, but he is still ranked (Corsica) 27th for his position (RHD), which puts him right around the top 50 in the league. So he is without doubt a top pair player still. The last year or two of his contract might be a bit of a bummer, but we all knew he was not going to take less than a four year contract. He will be worth it for the first two to three years anyway, which means only the last year might be an issue. But I don’t think so. Look at Hainsey. He was still able to do the same job at an even older age.

Please don’t think I’m praising Dubas here. I’m not. There was no thinking involved here. He literally took the most obvious, safest, and best choice we could afford. We all said we wanted Brodie and some point. It was so obvious that if Dubas screwed that one up he would have been in big trouble. We would have ended up with Shattenkirk. Not good.

I’m not saying Brodie is our saviour. He alone can’t put us over the edge. Only the core can do that. MNMT absolutely have to perform in the playoffs this year. They were embarrassed by Columbus and we all know it. They need to start playing a more aggressive hard nosed game. We have more than enough leadership. RHD has been greatly improved. Anyone that doesn’t have mayonnaise for brains has to know Brodie is a huge improvement over Barrie and Ceci. There are no more excuses. This is Dubas’ team now. Failure is not an option.

Dubas finally did something right. Congratulations Dubas. You are now 1:100. Something like that. Wait and see how Robertson and Sandin develop. You might be at 3:103 by the end of the year. If you still have your job.

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05 Nov 2020 17:16:56
I agree 100%. It always seems like the best teams have a strong top 4 and the Leafs finally have a great foundation to their defense in Reilly, Brodie and Muzzin.

The competition will be fierce for that 4th spot next to Muzzin. I don't think Holl is a shoe-in, but it's certainly his job to lose at the start of camp. There are conceivably 4 guys who will be battling for that 2RD spot as Lehtonen has experience playing the right side and Dubas has stated that Dermott will get an extended opportunity to play on the right as well.

Dermott, Lehtonen, Holl and Bogosian each bring a different skillset, and I'm excited to watch that battle play out. This defense group has a legitimate shot at being above average, which could be a huge boost to this team's Cup aspirations next season. Go Leafs!

06 Nov 2020 14:49:16
So my old lady is a flames fan, I'm a little nervous about Brodie in Toronto he throws a fair bit of errant passes through the slot. 90% of the time he's hainsey 2.0 10% of the time he's gardiner at his worst.

06 Nov 2020 17:27:59
He’s a borderline top 50 defenseman. So he is still a legitimate top pair player. The question is, how long will he remain so? Now that he’s over 30, the chances of him hitting a wall increase every passing year. There is evidence already of him slowing down (TOI and point totals decereasing) . Is it possible he “bounces back” with Rielly as his partner when he was already playing beside an arguably much better player in Giordano?

This signing isn’t without its question marks for sure. But given the circumstances we were in, it was the best we could do. It’s still not a viable long term solution either. It should be a good patch job for two years. But after that, it gets more questionable. By the fourth year, Leafs might be looking to trade him.

With the signing of Brodie, the Leafs window of contention is more defined than ever. Four years. Four short years is all they have. That’s why the pressure is on each and every year for these guys to do better. They’ve already lost some of the best chances they had at winning a cup. Now the clock is set and time is running out. This core might not even make it another year if they don’t get past the first round again this year.

06 Nov 2020 20:42:24
I'm not sure if 4 years is the window. What if Reilly walks? You won't replace him for 5 million/ year easily.

Since the signings I have said your window is Reilly. Even if he takes 8/ 8 kind of deal that's an extra amount of salary you must take on which in a flat cap world (who knows how long this goes on for) is insane.

05 Nov 2020 02:02:53
I’ve been on this site for a while, more than most. I don’t post often but this is one of the better proposals i’ve seen. I hate loosing marner. Arguably our best player, but its makes us stronger now and in the long run.

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04 Nov 2020 12:59:39
Some key arbitration hearings coming up. It will be interesting to see if some sign prior or get moved before hand. Also what do teams do if these players get big raises, especially Pulock.

Pulock Nov 6
Weegar Nov 8
Lemieux Nov 6
Strome Nov 5

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04 Nov 2020 19:27:12
Take pulock off the list but the others should be interesting.

04 Nov 2020 23:56:51
Yep, we can now. I posted before it was announced he signed. Now, how do they get Barzal to sign a cheap bridge.

05 Nov 2020 14:51:51
Take Strome off the list 2X4.5

Just Lemieux and Weegar left.

02 Nov 2020 21:43:59
For anyone who hasn’t read it yet, Pension Plan Puppets our out there European Prospects report today. It basically includes all our prospects, as they have all been loaned out somewhere by now. At least all our top prospects have.

This is an author that I read a lot. She is very knowledgeable and is usually very optimistic regarding the team.

I didn’t find the report very optimistic. It wasn’t phrased negatively. But if you read the article, the author definitely does not praise the players at all. What she doesn’t say is more revealing than what she does.

I find that the outlook for the draft/ prospects is, not surprisingly, all over the map. Virtually every site I go on to regularly has both a positive review and a negative review. It’s way too early to tell with a lot of them what we have exactly. But the main concern of the author, from what I can tell since she never actually said it directly, is that most of these guys are underperforming. And since these European leagues are watered down in terms of talent compared to the NHL, AHL, even the KHL, then what is the outlook for these guys at higher compete levels?

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting read. The only thing I can suggest is read it for yourself and see what you think. You might find her to be more upbeat than I did. My negative confirmation bias probably has me looking at it the wrong way.

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01 Nov 2020 21:13:55
In my opinion I really do believe that Dubas Is done for the offseason but we're in a bit of a pickle. Let's take a look at the potential lineups for next year
Hyman Matthews Marner
Mikheyev Tavares Nylander
Engvall Kerfoot Veesy
Simmonds Thornton Spezza
Extras being Roberson, Barbanov, Anderson, Boyd, korkoshov.

Riley Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Bogosian
Sandin Lehtonen
Warsofsky Lilygreen
Rosen Marincin

Anderson
Cambell
Dell
Hutch
Woll
Scott

Honestly just too much depth not a bad thing but I just don't see how we could have second line ahl players and defesmen who are veg much nhl quality.

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01 Nov 2020 01:06:09
I like how Avs have a combination of skill and size on their defense. I would obviously really like to see the Leafs go that route too instead of just all skill.

Cole, Graves, Johnson, even Makar. These guys have a distinct advantage in their size when it comes to play in their own end, and they know how to use it.

Colorado has what I consider the best defense in the league, and for good reason. These guys do it all: a lot of hitting and blocking of shots, while still contributing offense.

Last year they had four defensemen average over 100 blocked shots and over 100 hits in an 82 game schedule. Even Makar did not shy away and had almost 50 of each in just 57 games. Perhaps that is why he won the Calder instead of Hughes.

IMO, for whatever that’s worth, the difference between the Avs defense and the Leafs defense is the difference between contenders and pretenders.

I mention all this because I recently read an article on hockey as a strong-link game, which is the philosophy Dubas used to build his roster. Except the article concluded that after the top forward line, the top two lines of defense are of next most important to building a contender. And individually, they were almost as important as the top forward line.

Combined, the top 4 defense was more valuable in building a contending team than the first and second forward lines combined.

A point Sakic seems to have gotten that Dubas seems to have missed.

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01 Nov 2020 16:25:20
One thing really confusing about strong link to me is it never mentions goaltending.

01 Nov 2020 18:41:41
Again if you are the worse team when you were suppose to be an above .500 most improved team (2016-17) why do others praise them.

Makar should be elsewhere. Colorado got rewarded for being crappy when they were clearly good but got off to slow start so
Players said screw it and tanked.

2 disgruntled guys got them Byram zadorov girard and picks. If it was this year those sane two guys get them a few 2nds and 3rds not 1st round talent.

Screw the avs. Stop thinking they are so good. They aren’t. They are a team that gives up when life gets hard. That includes mackinnon. He has won at every level because his teams were always amazing. In the nhl the years things don’t go right he stops playing and years his team is great he shows up. Pathetic. Both ORielly and duchene wanted far away from him there is a reason why.

01 Nov 2020 18:58:36
They still got a good defense.

02 Nov 2020 06:14:19
1 bad year for Makar and girard and I’ll just laugh

It’s going to happen then cole and Johnson will go back to their crap selfs

Graves will lead league in +/ - but on minus side this year. Everything you keep writing about their D was written when Barrie was thought of the same of how you view Makar. Just go to that awesome 2016-17 team

Better goalie and not a bad mix of young and old D. They just stopped playing. So Makar looks awesome. Look how quick everyone went from karlsson is great to a dud. So he turns it around and you’ll all think he is great again. This avs team will do the same.

Look at mackinnon 1st year. Like Makar amazing. Then what happened took 3 to finally think ok I’ll try again

What a dud can’t cheer for guys that show this much weakness

O Reilly is an amazing character guy and wanted out for this kind of reason. When a leader wants out something is wrong. This team could do great but could be bad again. They aren’t worth praising.

02 Nov 2020 12:08:33
A lot of the same criticism you are saying about MacKinnon and the Avs could apply to the Leafs: Gives up when life gets hard. When things don’t go right they stop playing. The team could be great but could be bad again.

These sound a lot like the same criticism leveled against the Leafs last year, including in the playoffs against Columbus.

But even if we use a different example: Dallas, Tampa, Vegas, Islander. All four made it to the final four on the strength of their defense. Even the most offensive of them, Tampa, won the cup in the back of an mvp performance from their all-star defenseman.

Avs could go either way. But so could the Leafs. Lol.

Exciting isn’t it?

02 Nov 2020 12:15:48
@LeafsLife

Goalies are excluded because the variability in their performance is too high, and they have a disproportionate effect on the outcome of games. A bad goalie will wreck even the best team in front of them, while a good goalie can carry the whole team.

When they measure the performance of a team in studies like this, they generally go by shots, not goals, as there is too many random factors that contribute to goals being scored. Shots are a better predictor of team performance and are stable across a season. Once you eliminate goals as the prime method of evaluation, you remove the goalie from the equation altogether.

02 Nov 2020 16:26:22
I disagree hockyluvr. My point is Colorado’s star players have already showed they can regress quickly so it’s in them

Leafs stats haven’t in fact all 3 have progressed probably better than you imagined. They haven’t progressed much playoff wise but neither have they regressed at all. Matthews hasn’t missed a playoffs ( this past season doesn’t count as leafs were a playoff team just as Montreal wasn’t) He like mackinnon was drafted 1st to a crappy team. However, unlike mackinnon Matthews hasn’t missed. Both players had same type support but Matthews is already well ahead mackinnon at this point in his career and Toronto is well past Colorado at this point of the rebuild

Last season for Toronto was Colorado’s 2016-17 in the rebuild
Colorado 0-4 for making playoffs after
Toronto 4-0 so no they aren’t the same.

02 Nov 2020 18:43:14
Not as individuals, but the team itself has regressed the last two years:

2019-2020 (pro-rated for 82 games) : 95 pts, 279 gf, 266 ga

2018-2019: 100 pts, 286 gf, 251 ga

2017-2018: 105 pts, 277 gf, 232 ga

What I’m seeing here is the goals against are climbing higher while the goals for is stable. This is what is dragging down the Leafs winning percentage. They are not committed to playing defense at all, at it shows. I don’t think we will see them score many more goals than they are already. Which means they need to reduce their goals against to be better again. Without a change in the “all-offense, all the time” philosophy of the Leafs, they will continue to underperform.

A major knock levelled against the Leafs last year was that they played for the name on the back of the jersey and not the crest on the front. I’m not saying it’s true. But when the individual players headline numbers all go up but the team itself sinks, even just a little, it would seem the boat is leaking at least a little bit somewhere.

02 Nov 2020 18:43:41
I guess we can just blame Andersen, but that seems like the easy way out.

02 Nov 2020 22:34:08
Yeah that was Colorado 2016-17. Difference is even with leafs plying for name on back
Got pro rated 95 points and in a playoff spot in top 16. Colorado doing same managed 52 points and last place overall. Mackinnon and Colorado’s year 4 of rebuild is not even close to Matthews and leafs year 4 of rebuild

Colorado and mackinnon are going onto year 8 now
Let’s revisit this in 4 years when Matthews and core is in mid 20s not the drinking age

Mackinnon langeskog duchene stunk year 4 while Matthews marner nylander all individually and team wise outperformed all 3 and it isn’t even close. If Colorado is what you want them to be then mackinnon going from 55 to 105 points means Matthews will get 170+.

04 Nov 2020 20:57:59
I just want their defense.

04 Nov 2020 22:11:59
If sandin (1 year younger than Makar 2021 he could break out) or Lilly turn out to infact get around Makar level leafs have better D easily.

 


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