Leafs talk 3

12 Mar 2026 21:26:15
I think it’s still early, but I am curious and want to start a conversation.

If the Leafs somehow win the lottery, who should they take at 1? I’m genuinely curious to know. Is it the lock McKenna, or do they go with world junior star Stenberg, or do they finally address the need and draft a stud D for the first time ever in the Matthews era? My personal take is I hope they do not win the lottery and land at 3-5 and take Reid or Verhoffe.

The blueline has never had a true star, not in a long time anyway, and it scares me to draft another small skilled winger and expect different results

12 Mar 2026 20:40:46
Of course we first need to be in total tank mode to be in bottom 5; lots of bad teams below us with the same idea!
So no chance if we are 27th or better.

12 Mar 2026 21:20:44
McKenna is probably a lock at 1 for me.

12 Mar 2026 22:41:30
@ RandySears We don't have to be in Tank Mode. Didn't you hear the news today? Ottawa got their first round pick back today because they appealed the Dadonov rulling and will pay the fine but get their pick back because Andlauer feels he was treated unfarily.

Well the Leafs have been given their first round pick back from Boston for this year because the league saw receipts from the liquor bill from the Skip The Dishes delivery bill for the Leaf Executive on trade deadline day from last year and agreed.....

no-one who had not been drinking heavily would have made that deal with Boston. :o)

12 Mar 2026 22:45:06
If picking a forward I would take Stenberg. I think McKenna would crack under the media in Toronto. If D man, take Verhoeff. Pretty level-headed guy with huge potential. He still views the play from his position as an ex-goalie would. He sees everything in front of him in a very quick but analytical way.

13 Mar 2026 08:04:01
@Randy you don’t have to finish last to get 1st overall. The Islanders moved up 6 spots last year to get Schafer…

13 Mar 2026 12:49:26
McKenna is very slick, but man it's hard for me not to consider a D that may end up a true 1st pair.

13 Mar 2026 17:15:41
Goat
You’re correct but you have to have a 1st in 2026 to win the lottery. Leafs do not have a first in 2026 unless they finish 28th or worse. It was traded to Boston

Rlf
An elite Dman is hard to argue with and I also have similar thoughts.

And considering Suffering’s comment about media pressure on McKenna it might also further support your position.

I do hope we have that problem tho’.

13 Mar 2026 19:21:12
@Randy
I'm not sure what you're saying about Toronto having to finish 28th or worse.
Do you mean points wise?

Who owns the 1st is determined after the draft lottery is complete, not before.

13 Mar 2026 23:37:57
The only way we are guaranteed a 1st round pick in this year's draft is we have to finish in the bottom 3 in the regular season. Even if we finished 4th or 5th worse. There is a chance that with the 2 lottery balls for 1st and 2nd, we could have 2 teams behind us push us to 6th or 7th. Bottom 3 are guaranteed to stay in the Top 5 draft spots. It would suck huge if we finished in the 4th spot and ended up 6th after the lottery balls.

So we need somehow to get into the worse 3 teams in regular season. It could happen. We need to tank and other teams behind us have players playing to prove their worth. Only because their teams were not stupid enough to be the only team in the NHL last year that traded a 1st round pick and only went Top 5 protected.

13 Mar 2026 23:46:21
Yes, we can go up maximum 10 spots and down maximum 2.
So yes, to guarantee a top 5 pick, we need to have the 3rd worst record. This will probably not happen though, so we will be relying on the lottery.

14 Mar 2026 12:48:50
Tags97
Your question prompted me to read the rules governing the NHL Draft Lottery and I need to thank you because You are correct!

I mistakenly have always thought, despite your position in the regular season, that you had to hold a R1 pick to qualify.

So if the Leafs finish no worse than 22nd position they still can win pick #1. They can also be drawn for 2nd pick as well if not drawn first.

Finishing in 17th to 21st they also qualify for the Lottery but can move up a maximum of 10 spots.

So a 20th place finish could get them at best a 3rd pick or worst a 4th pick if they get lucky and their number is drawn.



Our chances right now are 13.2% that we will win one of the two lottery draws.

Finishing 28th (top5 protected) ensures retention of the Boston pick and also increases our chances for #1 or #2 to 17.1%.

Also if this top5 position happens things get really crazy with TML having to satisfy conditions from other trades (Laughton trade with Philly) as well as the Bruin trade. Musical chairs for sure.

So thank you again; I now know enough to be dangerous!

14 Mar 2026 13:28:51
@Randy
You're welcome.
Go be dangerous 😆

14 Mar 2026 22:24:00
Actually Randy, if we finish 28th in the regular season standings it does not guarantee the Boston pick back. If someone behind us lands a top 5 pick or 2 teams land top 5 picks, we are relegated out of the top 5 and lose that pick.

The only sure fire guarantee that we get the pick back is to finish 30th, 31st or 32nd in the regular season stats. The top 5 and top 10 picks are not guaranteed and settled until the lottery balls drop.

14 Mar 2026 22:27:45
If the season finished today we are tied for 8th worse record leading into todays games. That gives us a 6% chance winning the Number one spot.

15 Mar 2026 12:12:11
You are correct, I’m wrong, that a 28th place finish could bump us two places if we don’t win a lottery pick.

So a 30th place finish will guarantee a R1.

And of course %s change daily.

12 Mar 2026 19:08:08
I haven't posted in a while, this Leafs team has been painful to watch. I am going to touch on a few things.
Berube

Berube needs to go, preferably end of the year so the Leafs don't start playing better. You guys remember how Ovi went through a bunch of coaches until they found Trotz? I feel like Toronto is in need of something similar. I don't think Matthews just can't score anymore, I think Berube's style leaves him to tired to be dynamic in the offensive zone. Hence why we have seen him not back check at least twice in OT this year and watch his guy score.

Treliving.

I have mixed feelings about Treliving. He acquired a garbage heap with a few gems in it from Dubas. Where I do blame Treliving is going all in last year. He grossly overpaid for Laughton and Carlo. I would've rathered him do nothing than make either of those moves. Beyond the deadline last year I don't hate a lot of his moves.

I am one of the few on here that is a pretty big fan of Domi. We all thought Joshua would be more impactful. Macelli had a slow start but is looking like a decent move now. OEL was a great signing. The haul he got for Roy was pretty good. Marner was mismanaged but he had like a week to get a feel for the situation. I don't blame him there.

Treliving I'd give a little more rope, but it'd be a short leash. 1 year to right the ship.

I would not bring Keefe or Dubas back. Neither did it for me.

I'm not sure who I would look at for GM, probably Pridham, unless someone was available that would bring the right mix of experience and winning pedigree.

For a coach, I wish we jumped at Quenville. I am not entirely sure who else could get this team playing the way they need to.

Tough times being a Leafs fan, tank for Mckenna, cup next year. /S

09 Mar 2026 21:12:35
Not really a Leafs talk post but could be if it happens here Thursday night during our game. So John Carlson needs 4 shots to become the NHL Career Leader in blocked shots. If he doesn't get it tomorrow night against the Jets, he might on Thursday night against the Leafs.



I am hoping one of those teams take the time in a break in the action to acknowledge that record. It is crazy hard record to possess expecially for a player most people just looked at as a Offensive D-man.

09 Mar 2026 20:27:39
I should clarify... that is, if he plays in those games. He is day-to-day but reports are he might play.

08 Mar 2026 08:52:04
Well I think I figured out the Berube Head injury. They tried to play it off on a gym injury.

Turns out he was called into the office and he kind of knew bad news was coming. He sat solemnly hanging his head down and they gave him the bad news. "Craig we are going to have to Axe you!" He jolted up and said "Huh" just as he heard a swoosh and a man with a Black hood ran out the door with a bloody axe. He vowed at that moment he would make every leaf fan have the same upside down smile that resembles the scar on his forehead from that almost fateful day.

08 Mar 2026 12:49:10
Shades of Kennedy humour!
Love it!

07 Mar 2026 23:16:15
What is with all of these posts wanting Dubas and Keefe back? It has not worked out this year clearly, but at the same time it was just as bad with Shanny/Dubas and Keefe.

08 Mar 2026 12:44:41
Let's bring them back so Dubas can give Cowan $9M x 8 when his ELC is up. And we can play Keefe's style of hockey. The style that had the Devils barely make the playoffs last season and has the Devils 1 pt more than the Leafs this season. Makes sense.

08 Mar 2026 12:52:43
I am aware you two did not like Dubas and that’s both understandable and fair.

Now that two years have gone by it is okay to agree that Treliving and unfortunately Berube have done a poor job.

And then we can move on to rebuilding.

08 Mar 2026 12:59:02
RLF, your sarcasm does not become you.

You’re too smart and knowledgeable to make the statement about Cowan and Keefe, like Berube, believe in their coaching styles.

I’d rather you share your good ideas on players and how we get out of this mess.

I think it’s pretty clear that either Tre or Berube will be back so it’s water under the bridge to me.

09 Mar 2026 01:06:38
@Randy It clearly has not worked out this season. I'm not going to argue there. I don't think Tre and Berube can be brought back either, but the suggestion that Dubas and Keefe were much better by some is beyond me.

09 Mar 2026 12:17:21
RSears
I wasn't responding to you, I was responding to LL's post specifically about not getting all the talk about wanting Dubas and Keefe back. I thought my post was relevant, since I cannot understand someone wanting those two back either. If you look at the results, Tre and Berube got the team farther in one year than Keefe and Dubas ever did. One win away from the Conference final. This year aside, it's still a fact.

Do I expect both gone? Yes. I think Berube is a foregone conclusion. Tre is still a possibility of returning, I guess.

There may have been some sarcasm in my post, but it wasn't aimed at anyone on here, it was in agreement with LL, so not sure the issue. Ironically, I thought you too smart and knowledgeable to want Dubas and Keefe back, but I wasn't referring to you directly.

09 Mar 2026 13:36:49
Has nothing to do with Dubas or Keefe. I think they are just better then what we have. I don’t want any of the old or current management or coaching staff, but like I said, I think Brad gets pushed to president.

He’s good at negotiating contracts so that valuable, then bring in someone who’s good at acknowledging talent, but the way MLSE has worked the last little bit I think they promote an AGM so no added money.

09 Mar 2026 21:11:09
Agree with each of you.

Neither tandem is what the Leafs need at the moment.

And RLF, you can deflect my comment back at me because there was some sarcasm in asking for a return of Dubas and Keefe.

But I will say it reflected more my complete frustration with not winning a Cup in the last 8-10 years. I honestly expected a couple.

As to GMs, I think I’d prefer an ex-NHL player with GM experience like Ron Francis. His GM record with the Hurricanes and Kraken was technically not stellar but that’s not always entirely the fault of the GM.



Another choice, dare I say it, is Wes Clark or Gord Pridholm, but Dubas critics would probably not support these choices.

Not sure I like any of the “revolving door” of GMs like Ken Holland or others like that, but he’d do a great job, I believe.

I won’t bother with the coach because the GM will.

In any event, my only hockey time is now on this site only to keep my brain going.

11 Mar 2026 14:09:01
RSears. No worries. We are all frustrated I would think.
I think most thought we would at least have a shot at a Cup or make it to the Conference finals a couple of times.
Leafs first couple years with Shanny, Dubas and the "core 4(+Rielly)" was an experiment of an ideology that the Cup can be one in a different fashion than the past. That speed and skill will prevail. They continued that through the start of JT's and Keefe's tenure. By the time they figured out their ideology is flawed, it was too late because of all the cap money the had tied up in the core 4+, they could add the right mix of talent.
In comes Tre and Berube and they try and create that balance, but the core has had so many playoff loses, they seem broken and completely lack confidence.

It has been a cluster since day one of this era.
Need to break up the core even more imo.

06 Mar 2026 23:15:17
I know Treviling came in cleaning Dubas mess. But this is an absolute disaster. Get rid of him immediately. We are cooked

06 Mar 2026 21:49:54
I was out all day and just got back.
Went to Trade Tracker and felt some excitement to read what we’d added only to be utterly shocked.

Really a tough pill to swallow. Glad the MLB will be starting soon; hopefully the Jays will help me forget this pathetic result.

Give us back Dubas and Keefe please!

06 Mar 2026 22:32:25
At least Dubas knows how to sell off players.

07 Mar 2026 14:31:05
Dubas and Keefe? Lol. Geez.

06 Mar 2026 21:55:20
Treliving has set the Leafs back a decade. What the hell was that, sat around for how long just to acquire picks for next year?! If he stays on with this team idk if I can watch. Just awful management, lost two first and two prospects last year for nothing!

06 Mar 2026 21:45:08
I think "set them back a decade" is a bit dramatic. Those returns are not great, but it's pretty much what I figured. He overpaid for a couple guys and now can't find someone to take them. It isn't like he traded Mathews, Knies and Cowan for a 7th.

06 Mar 2026 22:31:13
@LL Ok, I’ll play ball. How do they compete for a cup in the next 5 years? This team is t getting better through the draft or free agency. We already know they stink at trading, so in two years time if it’s anything like Marner, Matthews could walk for nothing. Guys who are half the player Laughton is got better returns… idk I don’t see how this team is t rebuilding by next year; that’s what I meant by set back a decade because that’s how long it took the first time.

And you watch, they will trade those picks for bottom six guys this summer

07 Mar 2026 00:03:21
@Goat I don't think they do. I would personally pull the chute and trade everybody for a full rebuild before it's too late. Maybe I didn't articulate it well enough.

Getting back 3 firsts instead of what they got doesn't change anything in my mind.

They weren't going to contend with 3 late firsts vs 1 first and other later picks. They still need to ask everybody on the team where they will accept a trade because the window is now closed.

07 Mar 2026 00:05:08
Agree Goat.
He has “cooked his goose” and Berube.
I’d gas them both NOW!

07 Mar 2026 10:26:54
@LL I agree, but I mean if he could've got 3 firsts they could've used that in a trade this summer to get back an impactful player, but all the top picks he got were for next year.

07 Mar 2026 21:12:19
@Goat The issue isn't which players, it's the core. It's been 10 years and nothing changed. That is a long, long time. I wouldn't say it matters at all. I'd move on from the core before it is too late and you lose them for nothing.

Only way I don't is if Mathews is willing to sign for 8 years at a decent number (No way that happens).

07 Mar 2026 21:39:30
@LeafsLife. You are right. The way the salary cap and hence salaries in general are soaring. Even with Matthews numbers going down he is still going to want his salary in 2 years to go up.

07 Mar 2026 22:57:11
@Suffering That's my issue. Mathews is probably going to command 17-18m on a max term deal. Open market. If he is willing to sign max term at say, 14 I'd say ok, quick retool. Otherwise, this is not working. Just move him.

08 Mar 2026 22:31:23
LL
I think $17m x 8yrs for Matthews is not at all realistic nor is $14 after this season and last.
But if you’re right, a big Yes from me on a trade this summer.

09 Mar 2026 21:00:38
@ goat. Yes they can turn it around quicker. They need to clean house in Management and coaching staff. Then Maximize their prospects and draft picks with a astute GM not the current one. Look at the Anaheim model. 4 years ago they had a record of 23-47-12 and look at that organization now. That "Little ball of hate" Pat Verbeek has done a great Job. When they hired Greg Cronin to coach for 3 years, I think the plan was to have a University guy coach during that path of players coming and going, buch the way it is in University.

He knew how to relate and teach but knew in the long run when they were ready he would not be the coach that took them to the next level. Now Joel Quenneville is at the Helm. That is how a rebuild should be done. Perfect blueprint.

06 Mar 2026 12:13:36
I absolutely love what Buffalo went after this deadline. Exactly what I’ve been asking Toronto to do all year. Get some toughness, character, guys that stick up for teammates. They went out and got 3 of them. Well done to the GM of Buffalo! 👏 They might go far this year.

06 Mar 2026 16:17:24
It’s meh. I think they need to swing bigger up front to make it worth anything. Sure, they added size but they added a few slow guys to a fast team.

06 Mar 2026 20:29:03
Carrick is a guy that will do whatever it takes to win and for his team while playing a defensive role and killing penalties. He will block any shot and will fight anyone in the league if they hit one of his teammates. That goes far in a dressing room and on the ice.

Other two guys are built the same way on defence. Getting these players makes them a fairly complete team with how their offence and special teams are playing. Hopefully goaltending holds up for them like it has been.

06 Mar 2026 01:04:44
I think MLSE should tell Pelly to hire a President of hockey operations.
Pelly doesn't want to do that position or make those decisions.

Toronto could hire Doug Gilmour or Mark Messier for that position. (Hockey Guys)

Then fire Treliving and all of the coaching staff.

Ryan Jankowski from Seattle would be a great young educated GM or Prinium who is the current Assistant GM.

I think Matthews will ask to be traded this summer and will be traded to Los Angeles or Utah.

06 Mar 2026 11:46:30
I do agree the entire coaching staff should go. I can honestly see Treliving being promoted to president and Pridham becoming the GM.

04 Mar 2026 22:10:03
So I just realized. That if we miss the playoffs (and only a miracle will stop that from happening). Is this the start of a Mitch Marner type, curse of the Banbino. lol I just realized that since Mitch was a pro the Leafs had never missed the playoffs. HMMMMM

I was talking to a buddy that was at a few Vegas games this year and he said Marner look fresh at the end of both games he was at. He said that Bruce Cassidy uses him sparingly on the penalty kill and he is playing a couple minutes a game less than in Toronto total ice time.

Cassidy probably after coaching against Toronto in Boston saw how year after year No matter who was coaching was burning Marner out in the regular season and especially the playoffs. Running him out for regular Shift, Number one Power Play, and Number one penalty Kill unit. That caught up to him as each series went on.

04 Mar 2026 21:28:39
@1967 I've had a different thought in it.

Yes, Mitchy's TOI is less, but he looks refreshed because he isn't in Toronto. Media and fans aren't for everybody in some places. Willy seems to love having the spotlight on him, while Mitch not so much.

04 Mar 2026 21:45:59
There is that too for sure. In Vegas he is just a regular guy when he is at a gas station or the grocery store. The majority of people there would have no clue who he is.

04 Mar 2026 22:04:42
Do we actually believe Mitch didn't ask for the responsibility and ice time in Toronto? I would wager he would have taken whatever they would have given him. Mitch was a whiner.

He would relish being given that responsibility as he felt he deserved it. Maybe in Vegas they tell him how it is. The pressure in TO is more for sure, but so is the glory when they do well.

04 Mar 2026 23:47:44
How do you know that he felt he deserved it? Kind of a blanket statement without actual evidence to that. Regardless, it is a coach's job to manage his best players ice time to keep them fresh. I know some of the guys that did some work on his Cottage and they said he was a very down to earth guy with no airs at all and kind of a quiet kid. To be honest I don't blame him for leaving at all. First he gets carjacked a few years ago and the Crown drops the case. So no closure there for him on that. Then after last year's playoffs some knob posts his address online. Crazy thing is... he was vilified for lack of production. Last 5 playoffs Nylander was 43 points in 42 games, Marner was 42 points in 45 games and Matthews was 40 points in 43 games.

All 3 were productive at roughly a point a game pace. What truthfully cost the Leafs last year in the playoffs was these stats. McMann, Lorentz, Laughton, Jarnkrok and Holmberg: 0 goals, 9 points, combined -17. The big 3 last year were 11 goals, 39 points, combined -4. Tavares was -6 by himself and no-one called for his head or, for that matter, the majority of the bottom 6 until this year at this year's trade deadline. It just seems though we always try to find a whipping boy to blame in this town, sometimes justly and other times unwarranted. The blame still lies fully on the shoulders of Treliving, who just did not assemble the right supporting cast other than Max Pacioretty. I was happy for Max; he went out on a good note with his head held high.

05 Mar 2026 01:01:46
A lot to unwrap here. So, Mitch a public figure in a social media society is nice to guys building his cottage, making sure he doesn't say or do anything stupid and that makes him a down to earth guy and not entitled? Lol. Ok. Sure.

You really need proof he was a whiner? Ever here him whine to the refs constantly in many games. Ever see him throw little fits at the bench. Remember Willy telling him "this ain't junior" while he threw a temper tantrum on the bench. He yelled at his team mates to wake up while he himself sucked that game. You know who throws fits, guys who have trouble when things aren't going well or perfectly for them. Guys who feel things just should go right for them. ie, entitled.

Entitlement? How about holding out for almost $11M and thinking he was worth what Matthews gets.

How about never saying "he" sucked. He tried to lead and wanted it, not hard to tell that's true. Wouldn't you be upset if he didn't want the responsibility? Why is pointing it out a bad thing?

"We are treated like gods" and then saying he is leaving because it isn't safe in Toronto. Saying he loved it in Toronto, meanwhile asking other players what they thought about Vegas, then only accepting a deal to Vegas. Nixing a deal at last year's TDL, meanwhile knowing he was leaving. Yea, Mitch is a great guy who we can't blame for leaving. Not.

How come you don't point out Mitch's games 5, 6 and 7 stats? He had 9 points in 21 of those games. 0 goals and 5 assists in the last 18. Should we go on?

05 Mar 2026 04:35:49
This whole "But the stars had points" narrative is asinine. All of them have been horrendous in the playoffs on a whole. I remember one and only one series where I thought Mathews looked like he wanted it.

Nothing before or after and I have yet to see that one performance from Willy or Mitch. Before recent years I would have said Mo was the best playoff leader as he always showed up when it counted.

05 Mar 2026 19:11:34
It's the old damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they score the points and lose it's their fault. If they don't have the points and we lose it's even more their fault. Traditionally the teams that win the Cup have a GM and Coach that have a gameplan to be able to throw out 4 more evenly balanced lines that what we have here. That is partly a personnel issue with we know lies right at Treliving's feet, and partly coaching staff that need to find a way to get mismatches.

For instance. Throwing Matthews or Marner when we had him or Nylander on a 3rd line rather than loading the front two lines would have been better against Florida and sticking to the same old. We need a shake up from the top down. I do give props where they are due though. Treliving pulled off a nice trade with Colorado with Roy today.

06 Mar 2026 12:53:58
It's not about points. It's about effort. And if they want to be paid like the guys that need to come through when it counts, then they need to come through when it counts. They don't.
They took Florida to game 7. Games 5 and 7 wouldn't have been helped by spreading out the talent over 3 lines. The only coach and GM to get this group that far, is the current ones.
Call it like it was. Games 5 and 7 lost the series and the players sucked in those games.

They looked as scared in those games as kids out trick or treating on Halloween approaching a haunted house. This is more about character and not being overwhelmed in big moments. It's about a mentality of not being denied over afraid to make a mistake and playing timid.
Why do they look better in International competition? Because they don't have to be "The" guys on the team. They are surrounded by the best with guys that do/will step up, so they can relax and play.