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31 Jul 2022 20:08:30
Bellows and bode Wilde
For
Kerfoot holl and Robertson

Bellows I've profiled and Wilde due to not vaccinated played in Sweden but is still on ELC with the islanders

Trotz compared Wilde to John Carlsson and now no trotz maybe just maybe Dubas can grab Bode. I'd love both players but Keiffer is a pipe dream. However Bode may not be and would be a great low risk high reward kinda move. Even if the vax rule is still applied. Still worth the risk

Also, Luke Green may be a lie risk low reward signing. He was in Sweden last year with Wilde and looked good. This one is a easy no trade needed kinda move

JDB3194

1.) 01 Aug 2022 13:22:41
JD, I like this trade alot but as you said probably a pipe dream for Bellows.

The Isles need scoring and I think, with the right mix, he can be a 20+ goal and assist player.

Bode, being un-vaxed, would be a problem with current restrictions but he does seem to be not in the Islander plans so might be available.


 

 

24 Jul 2022 19:59:15
As appealing as Hinz off Dallas is RFL is correct. Why would Dallas do this. His contract is a steal . Outside marner and Matthews nothing leafs have would equal Hinz overall value. Nylander is close but still not quite.

Let's move on to the next player

Enter..Timo Meier

6 million cap hit for 1 year but 10 million salary owed and at the end he is still an RFA but the cost to qualify him is that very 10 million. Yikes. Even if San Jose decides to deal him there aren't too many teams who can afford to qualify him financially.

He is close to point a game player who can get 30 goals. Is he worth 10 million obviously not but his cap hit is a little under his value. Put him with Tavares and nylander and bam elite line.

Now what would it take for 1 year of service followed buy a summer situation much like tkachuk just had. Now tkachuk has better stats so giving sanjose marner won't happen. Also, San Jose might continue rebuilding grabbing assets.

So here's my stab at it
Kerfoot for cap reason
Holl again cap reason
Robertson
Sandin
2025 1st round top 10 protected

Meirer (25% retained)
Magna

Now why only 25%. We'll point of dealing him now is to get out of paying him 10 million bucks. Getting kerfoot at .75 salary and retaining 5 million makes using kerfoots contract as a positive salary wise now a negative.
Retaining 2.5 million salary and adding kerfoot .75 salary makes kerfoot basically play tor his value now in that round about way of thinking.
The cap value of the retention is 1.5.
Holl for Megna both guys suck but at least leafs gain 1.1 in cap space from this transaction
All together 5.5 cap leaves while 5.4 cap comes back.

So unlike the Calgary deal more than just player for players has to be looked as as the money value is way differant and team trading players direction is much differant

Thoughts

JDB3194

1.) 25 Jul 2022 01:23:10
1- Hate to say it but both you and RLF may be wrong and Hintz is subjected to injuries and also Dallas may need an angle to make a trade to try and improve whatever way they may seem fit. An aproach is just that and the way I see it is Timo is probably one of their best commodities and a new GM may try to gain the very best deal for him. That offer just may satisfies Vancouver and Miller for the same reason. I choose Miller, but I still admire this target as well as we all know it would totally make our 2nd line a huge threat. Pssst. Why can't Dubas see this stuff lol ;)


2.) 25 Jul 2022 02:01:59
I like the target, but is 1 year of meier worth Robertson sanding and a first?


3.) 25 Jul 2022 03:35:38
Man that's a good prop. Not so much because I agree with it, but the potential it has.

You throw him in the top 6 and watch him get a 40/ 100 season. If he won't resign for a reasonable number, you trade him for a tonne of assets.

I like it.


4.) 25 Jul 2022 12:10:16
I like Meier. Would like to see him on the Leafs. Remove Magna, unnecessary imo. Since Holl and Kerfoot are both on expiring contracts and the 1st isn't until 2025, this looks pretty reasonable. SJ is heading to a rebuild it looks like, so young players should interest them. Many will look at this as put Meier with JT and Nylander, which should be a great top 6. If the Leafs made this move, I would be wanting to trade Nylander now for a younger player+ and the cap space. Like Nylander to Arz for Crouse, McBain + 2nd would really interest me if this deal was made. JT/ Meier/ Crouse. That is a playoff line.


 

 

 

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31 Jul 2022 19:45:50
So this one I'm kinda close to. As long time vets of this site might remember my father was deeply in the trenches of the US jr and developmental under 17 and 18 programs while he worked for a CHL franchise for a mere 20 years this my upbringing is closely tied to all of it.

This player I am going to target actually starts well before he was even born. My father was raised in St.Catherine's. He loved both lacrosse and hockey but was much better at lacrosse thus made a career of while also working on another career on the side. Once his lacrosse days finished through connections made through both sports he started and finished his career helping find talent for a CHL franchise. While playing both sports in his hometown he was closely tied to this now father of the player I will target since grade school. His buddy chose to go all in the hockey route by age 11 and never looked back. A standout and memorial cup winner in the CHL to a very high draft pick with comparisons(don't know why media put pressure on these under 18 year old kids) to Wayne Gretzky. He would of been part of the first true world jr gold ever won by canada(before this the eligible Canadian born players from the memorial cup winning team took on the rest of the world not the best from Canada) but he was hurt. From there he played 10 years and made a forever home on the city that drafted him. He was sadly traded when financial woes started to hinder his team but got a Stanley cup out of it. He played for 3 other teams in nhl after winning cup and even went overseas through Tony tanti hard convincing when he failed to make his PTO tryout. He played most of year overseas on a line with niklas Ehlers father. then through a old close friend and former teammate and even former coach coach Ron Wilson he got contracted to his final nhl team at tail end of season. He ended up with 15 goals shy of 500 and over 1000 points due to this final stint in nhl after he thought his career was done.

This is where the player I'm targeting started his life. This players mother was pregnant and couldn't handle europes health care so returned home without her husband. The husband gets new life with new nhl and thus returned to North American soil but still away from wife. In between game 1 and 2 of Stanley cup finals that year ownership allowed him to use team jet to witness the birth of his second child and son. Then he flew back only to lose in finals.

They named that child Keiffer with 2 fs as his father Brian heard the name while in Germany and wanted that name boy or girl.

Keiffer was born in Minnesota to hockey father Brian Bellows. Full circle happened when my dad got to scout him along with many others that he has talked about before here with the US program in minny and Michigan.
Keiffer was to dawg in Minnesota high school setting records in sane school andres lee attended in Edin Falls. He played US hockey jr equvalent to CHL in Michigan for Sioux Falls where he set age 16 records for the league but chose to leave as he couldn't handle being around anything Courtnall due to Geoff being a sick demented man along with stevens, Sissyrelli and sheehy. Due to Russ son being on that team Keiffer left after a few disputes with this kid and left after 1 year and joined US program with his best friend Joey Anderson and decline western Michigan due to courtnall accepting to go there. Heck this problem goes back to Brian in Tampa playing year 2 and Dino signing that summer and Brian demanding trade as him and Brian Bradley couldn't stand Terry Crisp and locker room tension between bellows and sissy as bellows from what I'm told couldn't stand the drug use and is a huge say no to drugs advocate but on top of the 1990 allegations has forgiven but never wanted to be tied to those 4 so he wanted out of Tampa.
This lingered into next generation crap but joining US program Keiffer met the misery from Missouri 4 and the Greenway brothers, Fox and many others as Anderson was the US meet and greeter as he formed a group of 10 that to this day are real close.
Keiffer had many offers to many schools but formed a great connection with Clayton Keller so followed him to Boston University. He had a disappointing season so once again went one and done and decided to join Portland lead jr phenom Cody glass for a year so he could develop better since Keller karlsson and mcivoy all were leaving program.

Now 3 years into nhl it's time for Keiffer to leave the island and if Dubas can convince bellows to leave a very heavy Minnesota state represented team in the islanders then make it happen

Keiffer bellows for Kerfoot plus

Side note when Brian was dealt from
Minny to Montreal even though he is Canadian said he wanted to stay and play in the states only and declined every team except Montreal due to its rich history and yes Keiffer played in WHL but for an American team so he may have the same stand as his father did so get Joey to convince him to come and sign.

Again very long but had this player has been on my personal radar for long time and since Brian is near and dear to my family. also had to advocate that in the 90s crap got buried not just 2003 or 2018. Shame on nhl and hockey Canada.

Hope you made it this far

Cheers

JDB3194

1.) 01 Aug 2022 00:23:21
Good read JDB.


2.) 02 Aug 2022 15:50:53
Good background. I always enjoy reading the backgrounds you offer and those of course that your Dad offered. I lost my Dad 6 years ago, the hole never gets filled, but the stories etc I hope I have forever.


 

 

 

JDB3194's rumour replies

 

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31 Jul 2022 20:09:15
Is that sigh from edmontons end after hearing this deal.

JDB3194

 

 

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30 Jul 2022 22:11:09
Robertson not SDA n 1st deal

Washington passes on second deal.

JDB3194

 

 

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30 Jul 2022 22:10:04
Throw in ferland and call it a day.

JDB3194

 

 

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30 Jul 2022 18:42:10
Leafs are 1.493 million over the cap and this is before Sandin is signed. The estimate you give him doesn’t count as savings in deal as anything he signs for plus the 1.493 leafs are over is the true figure to go with.

So the real money in money out with the 1.5 you stated Seattle retains is 7 as you stated. However the money out is only 5.5 so leafs are now around 3 million over.

Leafs can be up to 8.25 million over the cap until the opening day of nhl season but that’s a silly thought.
Leafs have 20 skaters and 2 goalies counting against the cap and league rule states team must at all time have 18 skaters and 2 goalies minimum counting against the cap. No players are waiver exempt of the 22 right now so sending 2 players on waivers minimum saves 1.5 million so leafs are still back to 1.5 over the cap with no extras in case of injury

Let’s take money out of this.
On paper, the eye test and a basic understanding of hockey tells me kerfoot is better than wennberg. This ain’t even close. Kerfoot defends better, hits more, blocks more. He passes better and skates faster. He puts up more points playing less power play time. Wennberg is bigger and does win the faceoffs at better rate but 46% vs 42% while is a big differance on a whole they both suck at faceoffs and both are best when on the wing. On top of this kerfoot is only owed $750 K for rest of the year not his 3.5 cap value while wennberg is owed 10 million salary which is 500K over his cap value each season.

Now for Larson. This would be huge. Right now brodie Holl and liljegren man the right side. That’s stinky.
Muzzin and Gio get to duke it out to not play with holl. Getting larsson creates a great 1-2 right side punch while liljegren plays 3rd pair minutes we’re he belongs and holl we need not watch him any more.
Larson would look good with either Rielly or muzzin. I’d prefer Brodie with Rielly as I truely feel once muzzin has a true shut down stay at home dman he will start to look like himself again. Muzzin has a offensive game he just doesn’t have the partners to trust for him to do it. Down side to larsson much like muzzin he is hurt a lot. Also, his cap is 4 with 3 years left but he is owed 13.5 salary not the cap value of 12 over those 3 years. Either way Larson to me is close to a must but wennberg is a no go

In closing
Kerfoot holl 5.5 cap 2.75 salary
For
Larson 4 cap 3.5 salary then 10 in last 2 years

Does this get leads the dman they have needed for a long time. I mean both players leaving are ufa in summer vs 3 years of of player coming

I think a pick and or prospect will still be needed. Just not of Sandin level.

Lindell, Hollowell, Villanueva level d prospect
Abruzzese, Steeves, abramov level F prospect

So add 1 of each group (1 per extra season Larson is signed) and Seattle might bite

That was long.

JDB3194

 

 

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25 Jul 2022 21:03:50
Absolute gems of a trade

No complaints on either side of these trades.

JDB3194

 

 

 

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31 Jul 2022 15:15:08
On this site everyone relates all leafs contracts as bargains after bonuses are paid since leafs have money this is them flexing it.

Teams not caring about cap hit bug in money being owed view these money saving contracts as value where teams like the leafs only cate for cap hit value

Thus is we’re are meaning of the value contract differ

Both meanings are right and wrong depending on your interpretation of a value contract

Cheers.

JDB3194

 

 

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31 Jul 2022 10:57:14
Screw this cost per point crap. A bargain is if you buy the same item that normally costs x amount of out of pocket dollars but now it cost less than the original x amount of out of pocket dollars.

Nylanders cap value is 6.9 million yet his out of pocket cost is 6 million

That’s the bargain
Real money

As players contracts increase due to there production increasing that cost per point will decrease.
Let’s assume gaudreau and tkachuk produce at same as last season
Tkachuk at 7 cap hit was 67,000. At his 9 salary it jumps to 85,000
On his new deal at 9.5 cap hit it would be 90,000 but his salary is still 9 so back to 85,000
Johnny hockey cap and salary was 6.75 so he had a great 59,000.
On his new deal at 9.75 cap and salary it would be 85,000
Nylander at 6.9 was 86,000 and at his 6 million salary it drops to 75,000. So bargain

Now I’ll also point out that if a team gets a player after his bonus is paid then the salary to the team getting him is much less.
Nylander has a 2.5 bonus already paid so if a team grabs him for 3.5 salary his number now drops to 43,000. I mean it’s not the 16,000 bunting level but it’s still pretty darn good and a bargain for a team paying out of pocket salary owed from this point on in the season

Sorry showed up late for the dance and had to dance with the teacher who felt sorry for this nerdy guy standing all alone

By the way mcdavids number is over 100,000 cost per point but I’d still take a falls view steak over a run down diners steak any day even if it cost quite a bit more. The value in this case becomes my perfectly cooked steak and the experience I’m having while eating.

JDB3194

 

 

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31 Jul 2022 10:00:55
Once you find a stay at home shutdown dman to play with muzzin everyone will see it wasn’t a decline in his play at all but his lack of a good nhl dman partner.

When you start doing too much out of your own comfort zone mistakes start to happen. I truely believe this is muzzin playing with a declining holl.

Put muzzin in a position to succeed and we will see Leafs gain a top 4 dman once again without dealing muzzin to do so.

JDB3194