Leafs Rumours Member Posts

 

jodes's Profile

Current Avatar:
No Avatar image uploaded

No Profile Picture uploaded

Team:


Where from:


Favourite player:


Best team moment:


Interests:


Timezone:




jodes's Posts and Other Poster's Replies To jodes's Posts

 

 

To jodes's last 5 rumours posts

 

To jodes's last 5 rumour replies

 

jodes's rumours posts with other poster's replies to jodes's rumours posts

 

26 Nov 2018 21:49:46
Going to send this over more than one post:

What do the leafs need in my opinion?

1) a backup goaltender. I don't like sparks and it doesn't look like babcock trusts him at all. Heading towards same crap with Andersen being tired at Year end.

2) top pairing rd. Don't think anyone argues.

3) I would like to see another left winger. A little scoring. A little grit.


Next post about this year only. No worrying about future years. Figure it out then


But for now chew on this. Not advocating it but want to see responses.

Sign Nylander to $7m 6 Year contract. Marner to $8m and 8. Kapanen for $3.5m. Johnson for $2.5m assuming his game continues to develop.

Trade Matthews. Let's just start with dumba and neiderreiter. Just for fun. And see where it goes.

Thought is the rest of the team can stay intact and a few other surprises thrown in

I say again. Not advocating this. But it's definitely interesting for cap purposes as well as keeping all the other players / adding to the roster

Let the fun begin.

jodes

1.) 26 Nov 2018 22:16:44
Just consider Kadri + Gardiner+ Brown +1st for Zucker +Dumba

or in the alternative

Kadri + Gardiner + Zaitsev for Faulk + Pesce + Teravainen.


2.) 26 Nov 2018 23:04:04
Are you nuts? Matthews is not being traded and neither is Nylander. Gardiner, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Gauthier, Leivo and Kadri can go. Kadri is a huge disappointment. He disappears for stretches and only looks good if Marner feeds him the puck to score, similar to JVR and Bozak. Bet you both St. Louis and Philadelphia would like to take back those signings, that is part of the reason why the Blues and Flyers suck.


3.) 27 Nov 2018 00:17:48
Before Matthews got hurt, no one in their right mind would suggest trading him. Seeing how well we are doing without him, the trade talks are really heating up. And why not? I know I’m sick of talking about Nylander and Gardiner. And to be honest, trading Matthews would give us a couple high end players now, plus futures. I know the offfer sheet compensation is four first round picks. But if Schmaltz brings Strome + Perlini, you got to figure Matthews brings significantly better. Sign Greedy and trade Matthews. I know Dubas said he would sign all three, but hey, like Meatloaf said, don’t be sad, cause 2 out of three ain’t bad.


4.) 27 Nov 2018 03:39:51
Hainsey is olaying very good hockey right now. If he holds up for the whole season, we should re-sign him. He’s a cheap and highly effective placeholder for that 1RHD spot until Liljegren is ready. Then we only have to find someone to replace Zaitsev if he still stinks up the ice.


5.) 27 Nov 2018 10:58:48
OK so with the above in mind:

Hyman-tavares-Marner
Marleau-Nylander-Kapanen
Niedereitter-Kadri-johnsson
Leivo-lindholm-Ennis

Reilly-dumba
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Ozzy

Andersen - sparks

Payroll works. Yes I threw Nylander in at centre. Yes likely other pieces needed in a trade. Yes I would still like another goalie. Yes trade brown as well or put on fourth line. Yes this is for this year

Not a bad team and hits payroll. Won't be done but it is interesting.


6.) 27 Nov 2018 11:00:52
Nylandermagic,

Did u read the post. Said not advocating. Simply creating a discussion. Can we do that instead of throwing those types of comments around? Not necessary

Bottom line is sure, they aren't trading him. But I want to see what people think he is worth.


7.) 27 Nov 2018 11:23:37
Nylandermagic: Everybody on that team benifits having Marner on their line, why do you think Tavarse signed. Kadri is a local boy with some grit and draws penalties and at his cap hit is a pretty good bargain. Sure he gets lost at times but its a long season, try going all day at work without looking at your cell phone once, bet you cant.


8.) 27 Nov 2018 14:08:46
@jodes

Who did you trade Matthews for? Niederreiter and Dumba + Couple 1sts?

@nylandermagic

Kadri being used differently now that he is 3C again. More of a shutdown role that offense creator. He burst open again after Matthews got hurt and he was given more opportunity to score.


 

 

17 Nov 2018 21:53:12
Arghh this Nylander stuff is killing me. But let's have a look at what is being talked about. If he signs for 5.3 aav and say Matthews gets $12.7 and Marleau stays. It's $24m for first line. If Marner comes in at $8.5, (he is on pace for over 100 points), looking at $21.5 for line 2. Line 4 $3m. So far $47.5. Kadri, KapAnen and Johnnson likely what, close to $10m give it take? $57.5

Close to $65 with goalies and Kessel. I say payroll used will be $78m so $13m for defence. It's $9.5 for Reilly and Zaitsev. If u bring the other 5 in at $1m each we are above the $78

If he signs Kadri goes. Gardiner goes. Zaitsev goes. Our third line cannot cost $10m when first 2 are costing $45. If Marleau agrees (and maybe they already know this, IDK, then life becomes much easier.

Kapanen-Matthews-Nylander: say $22m Max
Hyman-tavares-Marner: use same number
Fourth line $3m

Forget third line for a sec.

Reilly and a Pesce: $9m
Dermott and Zaitsev: $5.5m
Last 3 say $3m. Total of $17.5. Plus goalies and Kessel. $25m. We are at $72m with no third line.

Johnnson say $2m if he gets it going. Use lindholm. $1m. Maybe more. Right winger Ennis? Whoever it is, this line would have to cost $6m roughly

Prediction:

If he signs for $5.33, Kadri goes for the Pesce type. Add what u want. Gardiner goes for whatever can be had. Marleau done end of this year.

Someone smarter than me is going to have to explain how anything else can be done without touching first and second Line and having a half decent defence group.

jodes

1.) 17 Nov 2018 23:10:56
Grundstrom Matthews Nylander .8,11,8=19.8
Hyman Taveras Marner 2.5,11.5,9=23
Marleau Kadri Brown 6.5,4.5,2.5=13.5
Marchment Lindholm Bracco .8,1.4,.8=3

Gauthier Brooks .8,.8=1.6

Reilly Pesce =9
Dermott Zaitsev =5.5
Sandin, liljegren, Holl =3

Andersen, backup, kessel=7

85.4.trade Kapanen and Johnson to get Pesce. then work around other stuff. that's my math.


2.) 17 Nov 2018 23:42:19
I heard now that Leafs May offer Matthews a bridge contract of some sort to make sure he stays healthy. What’s your thoughts on that one Jodes? I think it’s a big risk for both sides.


3.) 18 Nov 2018 05:06:35
What is wrong for a 2 year bridge at $8MM?


4.) 18 Nov 2018 06:33:00
Matthew’s has history of serious injury, dislocating both shoulders in less than a year. Depending how much time he is out will influence the contract he can demand.

If Matthews accepts the bridge, remains healthy, and has career years in goals and points, and maybe wins some hardware, then Leafs would likely be making him the highest paid player in the league. That could be as high as $15M depending on how much salary cap has risen and what McDavid’s salary as % of cap was when he signed, so Matthews can get the same relative salary as McDavid does in Edmonton.

On the other hand, Matthews could continue to be held back by multiple individual small, but accumulative worrisome injuries. It holds down his totals, and necessitates changes in the lineups and coaching strategy when he is out. As a result, he gets less money, quite possibly significantly less.


5.) 18 Nov 2018 10:15:23
Leafs GM.


Honestly at this stage, I see it as being based on what they want to do

But if we use bridges as the key, it opens up possibilities.

Let's use Nylander. And let's say long term he might get $7m. $5.33 aav was a number that came out recently on a three year deal. That's roughly 75% of the 7m. So let's apply similar math to Matthews but if it were me, I would make sure no negotiation at the same time as Nylander. Another 3 Year deal. If he was going to make $12m, he gets 75% or $9m. Simplistic but good enough for a quick analysis.

So your first line would cost roughly $20.5m with Marleau still here

Go long term on Marner. Who knows? $8m? I go $8.5. That line now roughly $21.5

Fourth line $3m. Keep Kadri. Sign Kapanen for $4m. Johnson for $2m. $10.5. Total of $55.5

Goalies and Kessel say $7.5 At $63m

Leaves $15m. I don't subscribe to going Max on the cap so that would be my planning number. Reilly, Zaitsev take $9.5. $5.5 left for 5 guys. Tells me what I need to know

With bridges, if those were the numbers:

Gardiner needs to go
Marleau needs to go

If marleau goes u find a free agent rd to play with Reilly as we aren't trading anyone. Not if we keep these players.

The problem still exists with bridges. That third line is the key. We can't maintain it and afford everyone and bring in defence.

Gardiner
Marleau
Kapanen
Johnnson
Kadri
Zaitsev

These guys are the key. We get to budget through them.


 

 

15 Nov 2018 22:42:08
OK need to put something out there. While I love the idea of some of these massive trades, it's far more likely to see a smaller one numbers wise (ie not 10 players changing teams)

Assuming that's true, I go back to old $83m cap next year with $5m cushion giving us $78m to spend.

If we sign everyone (Gardiner / Matthews / Nylander / Marner / Kapanen / Johnnson ) for next year, my guess is we are in at $86m which is minimum $8m too high.

Goalies aren't changing. Kessel remains. So forget that

Defence. Everyone wants Gardiner gone. OK fair enough. Likely minimum $6m gone from the above number. But we need to replace him. Use a $5m price tag to get someone to play with Reilly. No other changes. So we save $1m. Still need to find $7m

Forwards. Forget fourth line. Cheap and we aren't getting anything in value. Yes some can be traded but costs aren't changing. Second line: Marner and tavares I assume staying. Hyman we can argue but he offers value at $2m. So no change there? First kine: I assume we keep Matthews. In this scenario Marleau doesn't want to go so he is a keeper.

Leaves Nylander, Kadri, Kapanen, brown and Johnnson to trade to save $7m

Options are by numbers

Trade Nylander
Trade Kadri and Johnnson
Trade Kadri and brown
Trade Kadri and Kapanen
Trade Johnnson, brown and Kapanen

What do we want? A rd to play with Reilly.

Does Kadri get u a Pesce value wise? If so, we save $1m from what I mentioned earlier on defence. We remove Kadri and $4.5m so very close to the savings we need

What about Nylander for Parayko? Add as needed.

In the end, u have the following

Marleau-Matthews-Kapanen
Hyman-tavares-Marner
Johnnson-lindholm-brown
Ennis-Moore-Leivo

Reilly-Parayko
Dermott-Pesce
Bottom 3 young and cheap. Necessitates trading Zaitsev if possible although he just fits on the third pair budget wise.

jodes

1.) 16 Nov 2018 00:01:39
Just to add:

Kadri for a Pesce type d man

Nylander for Parayko

Gardiner for futures / prospects: be interesting to see what he could net us.


When Marleau goes, we might be a little light on the left side. Hoping Grundstrom sticks as high as third line and Johnnson develops. If not, have Marleau's salary to invest.

Where it will get interesting is when we have to pay Dermott. Then Liljegren. Then sandin should he develop. I suspect Liljegren will have to step in for either Parayko or Pesce when Dermott has to get paid, assuming they invest in a left winger.

So many different ways to go.


2.) 16 Nov 2018 00:38:47
Why not trade Marleau and save 6.25 MM Instead with a pick.

That brings you to 79.75. Than make a smaller trade.


3.) 16 Nov 2018 02:52:30
Marleau isn't that easy to trade. maybe a genie could do it but I think Matthews, Marner and Tavares are the 3 wishes so no dice.


4.) 16 Nov 2018 03:01:44
Because Marleau has a no trade clause and I'm sure the only team he would wave it for is to return to San Jose where he can retire a Shark.


5.) 16 Nov 2018 11:12:41
I said in my post that Marleau doesn't want to go in this scenario. Trying to look at what I will call worst case scenario. Payroll is going to be an issue. No matter which way things go. I just wanted to point out that to me, it looks like its just those guys we consider trading.

Now if the plan is to make a bunch of trades things change but how often honestly do we see a playoff bound team make say 5 trades. Very rare.

IDK. Just my 2 cents.


 

 

05 Nov 2018 04:46:45
Going to talk forwards again. Changed my mind a bit about Nylander (keep waffling, my apologies)

This time he is gone

Cap hits for forwards: going 64%. If u read my last post, I upped defence % a bit so the money has to come from somewhere.

Next year we will have $52m. Cap could be higher and if it is great. But I'm. going with this:

Fourth line: keep saying developmental. They can't spend money here. People can disagree but it ain't happening. $3m next year. $1m each. No more. Leaves $49m

Top 2 lines. Nylander gone. Teravainan in and playing lw with Matthews. Kapanen on the right. I believe all three need contracts. Math to me will be roughly $23m. Too high? Too low? My number. $26m left

Tavares with Marner and Hyman. Going to guess $21m. $5m left. Maybe $6m

Now what? Third line for $6m? OK well what if Moore works out? Brown on the right? Who's left wing? I say Leivo. I like the kid. He's big enough. Maybe he works out


Things are really tight. I said earlier trade Nylander, Johnnson and prospect for Pesce and teravainen. People will argue it isn't enough from the leafs. Maybe. But if they want him, with that glut of defence, budget conscious and teravainen looking for a payday, might be possible.

Other than that:

Kadri for draft pick (s)
Gardiner for draft pick (s)

Might be missing someone but I'm tired so it's enough. Bottom line budget is going to be concern. If we can score Pesce and a guy like teravainen, bodes well.

jodes

1.) 05 Nov 2018 06:00:55
Keep Kadri with Brown plus Lindholm
Goat plus Moore plus Leivo

Your amount necessary for forwards will be $54 MM

Defense $19 MM. goaltending plus Kessel is $7 MM. total salaries $80 MM under the cap by $3.5 MM

Gardiner and Marleau willl be traded for picks and prospects.


 

 

04 Nov 2018 16:59:52
Done this before, doing it again

Leafs look to be, at least for now, spending 67% of their cap on forwards (looking at next year)

Roughly 25% on defence. I am going to up a bit as room gets freed up down the road

Using 27.5% and seeing the cap go up 3.5m per year with a $5m cushion gives us roughly 21.5 next year and about $1m more per year afterwards

Therefore 21.5 - 22.5, etc

Only looking at top four and looking forward in time to some people moving up. Spending 75% of the cap hit on top 4. Those top 4 in 5 years will be Pesce - Dermott - Liljegren - sandin. Yes I'm trading Reilly as will be too expensive on next contract

Are these guys affordable in 5 years? Well cap hit for defence call it 26m and 75% on these guys: average of close to $5m each.

Very doable as 2 of them will be second pairing and not making huge bucks

This year:

Trade Gardiner if we get Pesce. Play Pesce with Reilly

Play Hainsey with Zaitsev.

Dermott with Ozzy

Next year move Dermott up with Zaitsev who is still rebuilding trade value

Play Liljegren with Ozzy if Ozzy can play rd. If not someone else

Next year Reilly's final year. Play him with Pesce

Liljegren up with Dermott

Sandin up to play with Ozzy.


Year after Dermott with Pesce
Liljegren with sandin

Not concerned about bottom pair


Cap should work.

jodes

1.) 05 Nov 2018 04:06:43
I like this Jodes. I actually cut and pasted both this thread and both the last threads you put up on forwards and defence. It really is forward thinking and I love the cap management aspect you always bring to the table. So many ithers seem to forget to check the salary situation when floating a proposala and a lot if times finances alone will make sure a deal doesn’t get done.

I agree with you on Reilly. I just don’t see a way Leafs can afford to re-sign him. A lot of other people disagree with us on that. But that’s ok. They are entitled to their opinions. And if they actually took the time to examine the numbers themselves past this season, they would see exactly what we do.

Kadri is another one I am in full agreement with you on Leafs needing to trade as well.

I love your posts. They are always well thought out.


2.) 05 Nov 2018 04:28:19
Hey leafs GM

Thanks for the kind words. Think I've said before that I don't know the young players as well as others like yourself but I know what won't work

Side point: the more I look at this, read and think, Nylander has to go for d. It just opens up so many possibilities. My next post is going to address forwards again but with a different twist. I don't even know how it's going to turn out yet but shall see.


3.) 05 Nov 2018 05:06:26
No problem Jodes. It’s obvious you out a lot of time and thought into your posts, and it shows. Without doubt, you know the Leafs cap situation better than anyone on this site. Anytime you say a deal will or will not work for money reasons, I basically just take your word for it now.

I love reading these posts of yours. You point out the bottlenecks in our salary cap, and you always offer suggestions to circumvent serious problems before they arise. It’s one thing to point out a problem. It’s another to offer suggestions to fix it. It’s rare someone does both. And you do both quite well.


 

 

 

jodes has no Talk Posts

 

 

jodes's rumour replies

 

Click To View This Thread

03 Dec 2018 04:54:55
Lol I'm sorry I shouldn't dick around

As far as I know, teams obviously only pay in actual money what is owed. The cap side I believe the receiving team pays full pop

Not sure if I agree with that but I'm sure there is a good reason. Makes sense to me that if u have them 25% of season u pay 25% of cap hit but what the he. do I know.

jodes

 

 

Click To View This Thread

03 Dec 2018 04:00:29
Yeah pretty sure it does.

jodes

 

 

Click To View This Thread

03 Dec 2018 03:24:07
Hey don't forget that at Feb deadline 75% of season is gone. That means the remaining cap hit is 25% of salary. $5m in space can get us $20m in players. Plenty of room.

jodes

 

 

Click To View This Thread

01 Dec 2018 02:44:28
This type of stuff is why I don't post much anymore. I enjoy discussing trades. I understand fully that some of mine are crap. But I post them to get a response. Some sort of build on

I posted one last week. Matthews for dumba and neiderreiter. Knowing itvwasbt complete. Knowing more was needed. Knowing Matthews isn't going anywhere. But from a cap perspective it was one alternative to keep everyone else.

What did I get? "You're nuts" was one. Just makes me laugh.


I like one sided trades. Gives us something to discuss. Unfortunately too many people want to make fun. And those people are just sad to me

W are not GM's. And no-one on here is that much more knowledgeable than I am. They just like to appear that way.

Again, it's too bad. But is what it is.

jodes

 

 

Click To View This Thread

27 Nov 2018 11:00:52
Nylandermagic,

Did u read the post. Said not advocating. Simply creating a discussion. Can we do that instead of throwing those types of comments around? Not necessary

Bottom line is sure, they aren't trading him. But I want to see what people think he is worth.

jodes

 

 

 

jodes has no Talk Replies