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17 Oct 2018 23:04:08
OK looking out 5 years. Would love input

This year:

Nylander bridged at $5m 4 years
Pesce brought in
Gardiner traded

2019-20

Marner signed for $8m at whatever years this gets
Matthews $12m 8 years
Johnnson proves self: signs for $2.5m
Kapanen drops back down: signs for $3m
Leivo makes it and resigns for $1.5m
Kadri traded
Kadri replacement for $2.5m
Lindholm stays: gets short term $1.5m
Grundstrom arrives
Marleau gone
Liljegren arrives
Ozzy proves self. Gets $2.5m

2020-21

Leivo secures longer term at $2.5m
Gautier good on 4th line. $1m contract
Dermott raise to $3.5
Sandin arrives
Rasanen arrives

2021-22

Hyman traded due to cap
New Hyman earns $2.5
Grundstrom raise to $3m
Liljegren to $3.5m
Andersen raise to $7m
Durzi arrives

2022-23

Nylander traded
New Nylander at $5m
Sandin raise to $3m
Rasanen raise to $3m
Ozzy traded.

2023-24

Kapanen raise to $4.5
Suzi raise to $3m



2023-24 leafs

Tavares - Marner - new Hyman
Johnnson - Matthews - new Nylander
Leivo - new Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - lindholm - Gautier

Dermott - Pesce
Sandin - Liljegren
Durzi - rasanen
Unknown seventh

Andersen
Backup

Cap at roughly $97m. Keep cushion of $5m. This team would have an extra $3m beyond the $5m to play with. Based on numbers I gave. This is not going to be easy.

jodes

1.) 18 Oct 2018 00:18:07
Unlikely that Leivo, Lindholm, Gauthier, Kapanen will still even be on this team. Doubt Hyman goes tbh, Leafs will do all in power to keep him, one of those dmen [Liljegren, Sandin, Durzi, Rasanen] is bound to fail, maybe even two. Doubt Freddy stays as starter for another five years. There will be a ton more players brought in, the only guys for sure who'll be on the 2023/ 24 Leafs, imo, are Tavares, Matthews and Marner. That's it. We can't judge five years into the future, we can't simply be estimating then cause that's plain preposterous. We think for the 'now', and for one-two years down the road, cause that's all we can predict. None of the guys suggested, aside from maybe Liljegren will actually stay. We just have to let it play out.


2.) 18 Oct 2018 00:25:52
I love how the replacements are called “new Hyman”, “new Nylander”, etc. I think it looks reasonable for the most part.

2019/ 2020

Johnsson has a lot to prove before the end of the year after such a slow start. How do you plan on dumping Marleau? I’ve racked my brain and can’t figure out a way to get out of that contract.

What happened to Rielly and Zaitsev? Lol.

I think you’re right to be trading Kadri. We get a good return. Probably at least a 1st and an adequate replacement. We should do it now while he’s at maximum value. Same rational applies to Rielly.

It’s hard to predict what Liljegren, Sandin, Durzi will get until we see them play, but those numbers seem a bit light. Under $4M for those guys in 2-3 years time just seems low to me for some reason.

I love it. We keep the core together and trade out aging and expensive UFA’s for cheaper, younger replacements and futures. It’s exactly what should be happening. Dubas isn’t married to any of these guys.


3.) 18 Oct 2018 00:41:51
Forgot to say Reilly traded the year before his current contract ends.

Shocking how hard this will be to manage. But they end up losing Nylander and Kadri up front and virtually the entire current defence. I'm sure I missed a name here or there but the final team is pretty much what I indicated there if the numbers held true.


4.) 18 Oct 2018 00:42:43
Missed trading Zaitsev as well.


5.) 18 Oct 2018 00:59:43
And wheres rielly?


6.) 18 Oct 2018 01:38:24
Top shelf slappers

I hardly think it's preposterous to go 5 years out. If the GM and his people have any brains at all they will go out long term and try to project where things will be. I wonder how some other teams got in trouble with the salary cap. And I am sure that some / many of these players will not play out.

The point I was trying to make is that with the team I show at the end they are under the cap but not by much if they have a cushion. If every single young defence man played out they will still be close to cap. Planning has to start now.


7.) 18 Oct 2018 01:45:06
Leafs GM

As far as Marleau goes, sure they can keep him. But for each decision like that, someone else is lost. I have seen others here say "they know what they ate doing better than someone like me". But I can add so he has to go. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to keep a 40 Year old at the expense of younger players

I'm guessing robidas or San Jose. So zero return. If he doesn't agree than so be it

In my summary I was looking at a list and simply missed Reilly and Zaitsev. Reilly goes the year before his contract is up. I believe Zaitsev 2 years after the current season

I am sure some salaries were off too. I purposely went low knowing others would say they have to be higher. But as said, numbers don't work then. So others will have to go

I guess I was trying to show that of the current team, don't expect it to stay together for very long. Going to be very interesting to watch how its done.


8.) 18 Oct 2018 04:48:27
I think they can keep most of the current team together. Look at Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh. They’ve all managed to keep their core for well over a decade. A few of the fringe players will have to go (Brown, Leivo, etc), and a few tough decisions will have to be made: Marleau, Kadri, Rielly, but for the most part, we will keep the core together.

You’re suggesting exactly the same line of thought that I believe Leafs will pursue. Trading out UFA’s for futures, while keeping the back end fluid and low cost so we can support our high prices forward group. A similar strategy that Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, have all pursued and still remained competitive.

You’ve been in this site a long time and post a lot of roster suggestions based around finances. We both know that not everyone will agree with what you have to say, but you make a lot of sense. Sure, no one has a crystal ball, and predicting what will happen five years in advance is difficult, but that’s why we are on here to begin with. Five years isn’t a very long time, and you can be sure that the lineups and changes you’ve suggested are reasonably accurate. Only looking out 1-3 years is very short sighted in my opinion. The only GM’s doing that are the ones at risk of losing their jobs and are in “win now” mode. You can be damn sure Dubas is looking at least five years out, of not more. He’s probably got a mock roster with salaries for each position for the next 7-8 years.

I always like your posts Jodes because of how logical they are. Hockey is a business, a very big business. And a team has to be run as one.


9.) 18 Oct 2018 05:40:42
Leafs GM

Thanks for the input. I am well aware that not all will agree lol but I love to post and see the reactions. I quite enjoy the thoughts that come out.

Unfortunately I do not know all the players u seem to and name in trades. I'm pretty much a one for one guy and others can add the picks / prospects, etc

The defence part in particular I had fun with on this post. With all the changes and increases in cap, they would have to have a very young / cheap defence to make it work still. When I started to build a 5 Year look I had no idea where it would end up. I had to keep adding and removing players based on salary as they just won't work. And yes I did indeed go a little low on some of the young defence men numbers. To prove a point more than anything.

Always gun to read your thoughts. Keep it up. And for those of u throwing out complaints about others I urge you: don't read it stay silent.


10.) 18 Oct 2018 06:22:22
I agree with you Jodes: it’s always fun to play around with the roster and numbers and post things just to get a reaction from others. Good or bad, I post anything that even is somewhat based in reality, even when I know I’m going to get heat. Somebody usually says something that you can keep in mind for later.

You got to keep trying and have a thick skin and have fun. That’s why we all joined. Keep up the good work. We need more guys like you on this site to encourage others. We only have a small community of regular contributors right now. A few more wouldn’t hurt. It’s guys like you who keep this site going.


11.) 18 Oct 2018 18:15:40
Actually one more thought RE salaries

In looking only at defence, I recommend anyone go look at top 10 teams. See what they pay top 2, second 2 and third pair. Adjust a bit for nhl cap inflation and u get a pretty good idea how the good teams manage the cap. For example, right now, a lot of third pairings are in the $1m per player range. So down the road, I fully expect at least 2 of the young ones I mentioned to not make it or be traded if they do as too expensive.

If u did indeed have Pesce and Dermott on top pair down recross and let's say sandin makes it to play will Liljegren, we need third pairing guys at lower cap hit to manage

Funny how no-one mentioned I traded all those guys but only Pesce came back. I figured there would be questions.

Answer is that they all go for futures. If u want something more for a given Year, go free agent route.


 

 

27 Sep 2018 00:00:06
Gardiner for Eberle

Nylander for Parayko.


Simple one for one trades. Money is comparable and the talent levels as well albeit in the Nylander / Parayko trade completely different positions.

jodes

1.) 27 Sep 2018 03:40:51
I don’t think NYI will be wanting Gardiner. They will be looking to load up on picks/ prospects. Love Eberle though. Any time he wants to be a Leaf, he’s more than welcome to join.

If Blues would do this trade, I would pack Nylander’s bags myself.


 

 

19 Sep 2018 00:02:50
I do a poor job of explaining this so going to shorten right up. See too many trades that won't work.

$78 being spent in 2019 of $83

Johnnson-Matthews-Nylander: likely $21m
Hyman-tavares-Marner: likely $21m
Grundstrom-Kadri-Kapanen: likely $8m
Fourth line: maximum $3m
Goalies plus Kessel: $7m
That's $60m for forwards and goalies. Therefore $18 left. Sure can stretch to $23 but no wiggle room for injuries or adds

So defence is $18m. Reilly / Dermott on next contract / Liljegren: $9m? Leaves $9m for 4 other players. Without changes, Gardiner and Zaitsev are not staying, particularly if they want a top pairing guy to play with Reilly. And for him, $4-5m is the max. Leaves $4-5m for the other 3. Two on $1m and $2-3 left for a potential veteran to help out

Can we use Gardiner and Zaitsev to get that top pairing rd?

jodes

1.) 19 Sep 2018 01:08:23
You would have to find a team that has two legitimate RHD and is willing to downgrade one of them in order to secure Gardiner. There’s not a whole lot of teams that would be willing to do that. Any team I can think of that has strong RHD is strong LHD as well: Carolina, Anaheim, Calgary, for example. None of them would be willing to take Gardiner along with Zaitsev. Would likely be looking for a forward. No one who has only one good top end RHD would be willing to downgrade to Zaitsev as 1RHD in order to secure Gardiner. Especially if they think they can just sign Gardiner outright next summer.


2.) 19 Sep 2018 01:17:44
Will answer my own question

Zaitsev needs to rebuild value. Assuming he is not going to be that top pairing guy, he is not affordable lower in line up

Gardiner: well I can't stand this guy but that's me. Tired of the mistakes. Having said that he has value. If they can extend him without no trade clause, I'm guessing 5.5 to 6 m, maybe more. So salary wise, would another team take him on and just switch up a rd for a ld. But pay $2m more. Who is that team.

I say again, I think Kadri is the guy who gets moved and assuming Nylander signs, he moves to 3 c. Who they get for him? Likely a good enough young d to play with Reilly. Said Pesce b4 but anyone else at that salary level?


3.) 19 Sep 2018 01:23:46
First line will be $18.5 MM with Johnsson ($1.5MM)
Second Line will be $20.75 MM
Third Line will be $7 MM
Fourth Line will be $5 MM including a scrub
Goal Tender plus Kessel-$7 MM
Total $58.25

Dermott is on old contract .865 and Lilygren .9 with Reilly at $5 MM EQUALS $ 6.75 MM plus Zaitsev $4.5= $11.25. 5 Defenseme and extend Gardiner to $6 MM= $17.25 MM. Two inexpensive Defensemen $1.8 MM= $19.05 mm.
This gives a total $77.30 Room for a $5 MM defenseman pushes Leafs total salary cap $81.50 MM for 2019

Trade Nylander for a Defenseman.


4.) 19 Sep 2018 02:09:04
Neither can be used to get a top pairing RHD

Guess Matthews or Marner should hold out next year until Hortons LTIR kicks in at start of year thus allowing leafs extra 5 million to sign whomever chooses to hold out

Then Marleau off books the following year and if cap goes up that's when u get RHD if Liljegren isn't ready.


 

 

10 Sep 2018 17:38:02
Kadri for Pesce

2018-19

Reilly - Pesce
Gardner - Zaitsev
Dermott - hainsey

Nylander third line center

Extend and trade gardener at deadline and bring up liljegren. Move Dermott up with zaitsev and move hainsey to left side to play with liljegren.

jodes

1.) 10 Sep 2018 17:45:00
Add Staal and a pick from Carolina to replace Kadri and like Carrick and Bracco from the leafs and it’s good.


2.) 10 Sep 2018 18:03:21
Good thinking, but Dubas says no. A 30 goal scorer who primarily centered Marleau and Komarov and has a team friendly contract won't be going anywhere just yet, not unless there is some value added for leafs.


3.) 11 Sep 2018 03:49:24
Pesce isn’t good enough value for Kadri?

Mostleaf is correct. This is only half a trade. We can’t trade Kadri unless we are bringing in someone to replace him. Staal or Rask would be the obvious choices in this scenario.


4.) 11 Sep 2018 03:57:49
JODES

I like your thinking it's just a bit early . Leafs will be in a position to move Kadri soon if the rewards in doing so are a major win. By next season leafs have up to 4 more players knocking on door and I see the exit of Marleau 4 cash reasons

Bracco
Brooks
Grundstrom
Marchment

3 wingers and a center this would allow 3019-20 to move Nylander to center and add three wingers to lineup. Brooks becomes 4 th line center

Next season

Hyman Matthews bracco
Marner Tavares Kapanan
Johnson Nylander Grundstrom
Brooks cebtering 4 th line

But the return for Kadri would have to much more than you suggest.


5.) 11 Sep 2018 00:24:27
Thinking move Nylander down into the 3 spot. I like Kadri but need that right d. Put Nylander with Kapanen and Johnnson. Matthews with Marner. Tavares they say improves anyone's stats. So I would like to see that. Put Marleau with him for now. Hyman and brown fill those 2 lines in. Not perfect but I like that third line. Imagine that against other thirds.


6.) 11 Sep 2018 00:28:50
Like to see Gardiner and Zaitsev go too. Maybe let Zaitsev rebuild value (hopefully) . Dermott up with him. Hainsey and Carrick bottom pair. Question is who for Gardiner. I say add more scoring. Even for one year. Go Panarin for Gardiner (add any extras u want) . Assume both agree to extensions. Trade Panarin after one Stanley cup run. Like to see them be bold!


7.) 11 Sep 2018 06:33:20
Staal is a downgrade from Kadri on the ice, with a more expensive and longer term contract. Major pass on Staal.

I think Kadri for Pesce is fair value, but I don't think it actually makes the Leafs better. The current group of centres is a matchup nightmare for literally every other team in the league, and losing that advantage isn't worth having a more well-rounded defense. Plus adding Tavares and removing Bozak/ JVR already improves the forward group defensively.


8.) 11 Sep 2018 17:08:16
That comment of Tavares makes people better I'd like to see Leivo get a shot on his wing. See if he can make him have some value for us.


9.) 12 Sep 2018 01:35:49
While I appreciate and understand the input, I am always confused on this site.

It seems to me that there is general agreement that we need a right d to play with Reilly. If I am wrong there fine. But if true and u want something half decent, u give something up. I like Kadri but if he is the price for that guy, so be it.

I hear well Kadri is part of the three headed snake. Well is Nylander not a good option. If there were match up nightmares before, with him there it would be very hard offensively to match.

Just my 2 cents. 200% happy to give Kadri up for that d man. And as I said, if Liljegren and Dermott can play second pair next year, u would only have $12m invested. Lower cost bottom pair and u r looking at $16m for the entire defence. Trade Gardiner. Bring Inna Panarin type player. Can then afford him format least 2 years. Go for it.


10.) 12 Sep 2018 04:50:14
I don’t disagree with you at all Jodes. If we are going to bring someone in for RHD, it will not be cheap. It’s basically either Nylander or Kadri that goes. Nylander will buy a top notch a-one defenseman (Montour, Manson, Risolainen, Parayko, etc), while Kadri will probably buy you a player on the next tier down (Pesce, Vatanen, Braun) . I would rather downgrade 3C then 1RW. I don’t know if moving Nylander to center is the solution. I think that would seem like a downgrade at both 3C and 1RW. 3C are fairly readily available. Kadri is more like a 2C or even a 1C, and is overqualified.

Liljegren looks fantastic. But can we afford to wait for him to develop? We only have Tavares for 7 years. If we waste two more years getting Liljegren on the top line, the window of opportunity starts to close rapidly. I think moving Kadri is probably the right choice as well. I like Pesce, and think the value is fair. It’s a good proposal and I’m all for it.


11.) 12 Sep 2018 14:59:29
While I agree 3Cs are available, centres at the level of Kadri are not. Rental wingers are always available at the deadline, so to me trading Nylander is a move that would be easier to make up for somehow, plus Willy would bring in a superior player.

That being said, I do not advocate either move. I'd be way more excited about trading small assets for a right-shooting borderline middle pair D-man who could solidify that group, as opposed to subtracting a big piece sonewhere to improve somewhere else a la Kadri for Pesce or Nylander for Manson.


12.) 12 Sep 2018 18:08:29
Leafs gm

Trading for panarin doesn't address any downgrade at wing?


 

 

30 Aug 2018 03:28:22
2018

1) Columbus: Panarin

Toronto : Gardner plus prospect

2) Vancouver : Tanev

Toronto: Kadri

3) bridge Nylander 2 years. $5m? Less?


Panarin- Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - tavares - Marner
Johnnson - Nylander - brown
Hyman - Haiti's - Ennis.

Reilly - Tanev
Dermott - Zaitsev
Gainsay - Carrick
Extra from the bunch left

Andersen - sparks.

PAyroll $10m below cap unless I missed something


2019

Extend Panarin: $9m? Term of whatever u wish

Move Marleau to San Jose if possible: this would have to happen.

Trade Zaitsev: also necessary: not sure of value he might hold.

Move Johnnson to second line.

4th line all million dollar players


For defence have a potentially unique opportunity if lilijgren is ready for second pairing minutes. Very cheap second pair.

Bottom pair: Carrick if he works out with a cheap partner if possible.


Payroll would sit around 80m and cap likely 83. Tight but works. Nylander in last year of bridge. If can sign long term great under cap. If not, a couple of cups is the price for losing him.

jodes

1.) 30 Aug 2018 04:52:39
Not sure where Haiti's came from. Jooris.


2.) 30 Aug 2018 04:54:53
And Hainsey. Wow. Not gainsay.


3.) 30 Aug 2018 06:19:50
Kadri for Tanev is way off. We can get someone who can play a full season.

I like the idea of Nylander on third line. Though I would probably play him between Johnsson and Kapanen, just because of speed factor, and move Hyman to 1RW. Hyman has the experience and fits well as the grinder of the Matthews line.

Why does Nylander only get offered $5M or less, while Panarin takes in over $9M?


4.) 30 Aug 2018 06:50:40
Ok so I have a few suggestions here
1 When you trade for Panarin, he is given a 1 year extension by Columbus, that way we can trade him after for better center depth that could come in handy if we do trade Kadri
2 I don’t think Tanev is the guy leafs should be going after, he is very injury prone and as LeafsGM said wouldn’t last a full season. He is definitely not worth giving up Kadri and if the leafs were to do that a lot of fans would lose their marbles (including me), I’m not saying they won’t trade for Tanev, however I am stating that I just don’t think he is a top 2 d and is very prone to injury so he shouldn’t be the guy the leafs should go after
3 fix up your lines a bit, my suggestion for the 3rd line if we do get Panarin is this
Hyman/ Kadri/ Kapanen
Hyman is definitely not a 4th liner, and Kapanen has proved to be better than Brown (with a higher ceiling as well), Brown is honestly a guy I think leafs should be considering trading, especially since a guy like Grundström or Leivo could take his spot on the 4th line.


5.) 30 Aug 2018 16:13:11
OK here was my thinking. Looked at salary cap. Want Panarin. Long term. To do that and try to keep the young talent, people have to go

I don't want to keep Gardner and zaitsev. Personal preference.

We need a partner for Reilly. In running numbers, Tanev contract works. I do like him and he has been injured. If we can get for less great but the same money needs to go out. I picked Kadri. But we cannot afford a more expensive guy if we did get Panarin. Just numbers.


6.) 30 Aug 2018 16:20:29
Nylander was a bridge. Panarin long term. Honestly numbers could be off. Feel free to suggest

Line wise: they will play where they play but if we did trade kadri I personally would love to see a third line cycling centre play with human and brown. Think that would be interesting.


7.) 30 Aug 2018 16:36:30
If u guys could humor me:

Assume we are trading kadri for someone to play with Reilly

Assume salary is 4.5-5.0. No higher


Who else can we get based on this alone.


8.) 30 Aug 2018 16:37:57
I hate this computer. Hyman not human.


 

 

 

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18 Oct 2018 21:53:12
Yeah I kind of figured lol.

jodes

 

 

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18 Oct 2018 20:11:33
Interesting

Well u know me. Nylander signs long term for $7m. Together $11.5 for he and Kadri. $8.6 coming back. So $3m savings. Barkov good for 4 years and big body who can score. Pysyk good for 2 years and defensive so like that. Love the 1st rounder. If they went for I'd be all over it.

jodes

 

 

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18 Oct 2018 18:15:40
Actually one more thought RE salaries

In looking only at defence, I recommend anyone go look at top 10 teams. See what they pay top 2, second 2 and third pair. Adjust a bit for nhl cap inflation and u get a pretty good idea how the good teams manage the cap. For example, right now, a lot of third pairings are in the $1m per player range. So down the road, I fully expect at least 2 of the young ones I mentioned to not make it or be traded if they do as too expensive.

If u did indeed have Pesce and Dermott on top pair down recross and let's say sandin makes it to play will Liljegren, we need third pairing guys at lower cap hit to manage

Funny how no-one mentioned I traded all those guys but only Pesce came back. I figured there would be questions.

Answer is that they all go for futures. If u want something more for a given Year, go free agent route.

jodes

 

 

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18 Oct 2018 18:05:23
Love to have Panarin.

On the other side I think right now Hyman is a cheap, very useful piece. I have been looking at the future and I also think they keep draft choices based on what's coming salary cap wise

If they can get Panarin in for some pieces they likely will get rid of anyway (ie Gardiner) I would be all for it for run at the cup.

jodes

 

 

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18 Oct 2018 05:40:42
Leafs GM

Thanks for the input. I am well aware that not all will agree lol but I love to post and see the reactions. I quite enjoy the thoughts that come out.

Unfortunately I do not know all the players u seem to and name in trades. I'm pretty much a one for one guy and others can add the picks / prospects, etc

The defence part in particular I had fun with on this post. With all the changes and increases in cap, they would have to have a very young / cheap defence to make it work still. When I started to build a 5 Year look I had no idea where it would end up. I had to keep adding and removing players based on salary as they just won't work. And yes I did indeed go a little low on some of the young defence men numbers. To prove a point more than anything.

Always gun to read your thoughts. Keep it up. And for those of u throwing out complaints about others I urge you: don't read it stay silent.

jodes

 

 

 

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