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28 Jun 2019 22:31:51
A friend gave me this trade - She is a die-hard Marner fan:
COL: MacKinnon, Johnson
TOR: Mathews, Zaitsev
COL: 13M TOR: 16 M
I don't think either team would make the trade, but it is interesting.
Saves the Leafs 3M, and everyone is signed for at least 4 years. They get a better RHD and the Av's unload Johnson because they have Makar doing so well.
MacKinnon played well with Marner at the worlds a couple of years back along with Point if I remember right.
Mathews goes close to home and advertisers have a field day.
Leafs get Barrie and unload Zaitsev. Might knock down Marners salary demands when they ship his buddy out of town.
Maybe the Leafs add, say Brown
1.) 29 Jun 2019 12:33:06
Here's a thought tell your friend to stop giving you trades.
2.) 30 Jun 2019 05:16:19
but she's very nice.
13 Jun 2019 15:12:51
ANA: Rakell, Ritchie, Eaves
TOR: Kadri, Zaitsev, Rosen
The Ducks need RHD worse than the Leafs. They only have Manson, and Rosen has played on the right side in Sweden. Beggars can't be choosers.
They are stuck with the centers ahead of Rakell, and are getting one back in Kadri. Ritchie is a big winger the Leafs need, and Eaves for cap balance. The Leaf then move him.
While I like Kadri, I think his time here is over, and it is best to trade him. Rakell is a little better offensively than him, 2 years younger, and doesn't screw up.
Zaitsev needs to go, and where better than a team in desperate need of right D.
Capwise, it saves the Leafs a million or so.
1.) 13 Jun 2019 16:09:23
No thank you.
02 Dec 2018 17:38:47
Ran the numbers from CF and plugged in the following values for a 23 man roster for next year:
OFFENSE
Matthews 10.5 M
Marner 8 M
Kapanen 2.2 M
Johnsson 2.0 M
Callup1 925k
Callup2 842.5lk
Callup3 925k
Kapanen and Johnson contracts are based on Hyman and Brown's contracts for similar results.
Leivo, Ennis, and Lindholm are gone, as they will all want more next year.
DEFENCE
Gardiner, Marincin, Holl, and Hainsey are gone. Goodbye. Sorry you didn't get a chance Justin.
Liljegren, and Sandin called up (ready or not).
Ozhiganov at $1 M
Even with all these moves, and using the 5.3 M LTIR we are 687k+ over.
How on earth are Matthews and Marner going to get 13 M and 10 M as babbled on TV last night.
Taveras took 5.5 M after an 81 point season. No one on the team has accomplished that(except Marleau), so why should they get such extravagant first contracts? Greed. Greed, that has gotten entirely out of hand.
13 and 10 M is just not going to happen unless they also move one of these 4:
Nylander (best option)
Marleau (next best)
Zaitsev
Kadri
Nylander will fetch excellent ELC prospects and/or picks. And make the managing of the cap much easier now and into the future.
Marleau will also, but the return will be poor, if anything, and he has an NMC.
Zaitsev won't fetch much and would also leave a gap on defense.
Kadri would fetch a nice return, and he is 28, but I doubt the Leafs will trade him.
What there won't be is anything with a cap hit beyond an ELC coming back if at all.
Your dreams of Parayko, Dumba, Trouba etc, are effectively on hold for a year until Marleau is off the cap. Horton is already factored in, so no change there.
Whether at the deadline or prior to the draft, there will be a lot of changes to accommodate M & M.
Better hope the cap goes up to 83 or 84 M or it's goodbye Willie, hello Arizona. (Willie Coyote?)
Trades? More like a firesale.
Gardiner, Leivo, Lindholm, Ennis, Hainsey, Marincin, and Holl, all need to go before the deadline.
Plus 1 of the above 4 listed.
Look for teams with stockpiles of prospects/picks and the cap room. And the Leafs can take back some rentals for this year only.
Colorado, Arizona, Carolina, New Jersey, Vegas (Clarkson LTIR), Philly, possibly St. Louis, Oilers, and the Canucks.
Happy Hunting!
1.) 02 Dec 2018 18:29:13
Aug 18, I would be ecstatic with your suggested numbers except for Johnsson, which double his salary to $1.5 MM. Lindholm stays for $1.5 MM and Leivo stays for $1 MM
Did not keep Brown and combined Zaitsev plus 1st round pick and a prospect for Manson.
Gardiner was traded in 2018/ 19 traded deadline for Braun.
Rosen + Ohziganov plays for $1 MM each.
Holl, Marchment and Moore sit in the stands totals 2.27 MM.
The defense made up of the two traded individuals- Braun and Manson.
The total amount keeping Marleau totals $81.9 MM.
2.) 02 Dec 2018 19:51:41
Very good article Aug18. It was a great read and made the most sense I've seen around here in a while.
You've got a good grip on reality.
Keep up the great articles they are both informative and interesting.
3.) 03 Dec 2018 01:48:17
My guess is Liljegren is going to be our 1RHD next year. Hainsey is doing well, but really a beneficiary of playing with Rielly, not the other way around. If we can get Hainsey back on a 1x$1M deal to cover 3LHD until Sandin is ready, I think that would make for a smart move.
23 Nov 2018 17:24:02
Gauthier, Leivo, Rosen and Neilson.
for
Puljujarvi, Rattie, Persson
Here we are risking little as the above Leafs are only mildly productive. Chiarelli might go for this as he gets 2 defencemen in the deal while only moving one. He has to be desperate right now.
Puljujarvi needs to be moved by Edmonton. They picked him way too high, and have now screwed up his development. Hopefully it's not too late.
Rattie hasn't shown his talent at the NHL level, but I think it's coming.
Persson has some nice SHL numbers.
1.) 23 Nov 2018 18:55:58
I love these depth moves. Gives us a chance to talk about guys that maybe we don’t hype often enough. And I absolutely love hyping players. On the off chance they actually read something I post about them, maybe makes them feel good about themselves.
Gauthier is finally good enough to make the teamfull time. We should trade him. Puljujärvi has been floated around as potential trade bait a lot lately, and for good reason. So much size and potential makes you think he can still work out. It’s just so darn tempting to throw Edmonton a couple fringe players to take a chance on him. The exchange of prospects is nice too. Rosen and Nielsen are never going to make the team. They should be given a chance elsewhere. Even if the two guys you are bringing in never make the team, at minimal it’s a breakeven. If they ever do playfor Leafs in any meaningful capacity, we win. I really like this trade. It’s low risk/ high reward. Puljujärvi could really break out still, and we can’t lose on the other guys. This is the exact type of low level conservative trade I think we are likely to see Dubas making. Excellent. I love it.
2.) 24 Nov 2018 00:42:11
That was covered very nicely. as he said. couldn't put it any better.
18 Nov 2018 00:33:14
How about some minor moves:
Burakovsky (RFA), Bowey, Shumakov(RFA)
for
Johnsson(RFA), Rasanen(KHL), Scott(minors)
The Caps are stuck for cap space now and for the foreseeable future (like Chicago for the past 5 years)
Burakovsky is a big fast LW with good hands (but hasn't quite lived up to expectations). If we can't afford to re-sign him, so be it, but I think he'd fit on the Kadri line nicely.
Bowey brings stability to the right D(3rd pair or extra).
And we take a chance on Shumakov's offense. He will deliver. There's just no room for him on the caps RW.
Rasanen and Scott cost the Caps nothing in cap space this year, and Johnson hasn't done enough to ask for a large raise yet.
About 4M in cap savings for the Caps this year. A hit the Leafs can afford for this year.
1.) 18 Nov 2018 04:05:19
I love these minor deals. Everyone gets so hung up on the big name meat and potato guys, they forget about the bread and butter guys on the team. Most teams these guys account for over half the personnel.
Burakovsky has history of injury, which I feel has really held him back. His games played has dropped steadily the last three years. I don’t think he will be all that expensive to re-sign, and if he can stay healthy, he’s young enough to be able to turn it around still.
Bowey is good pick up. Not sure if we really need him when we already have so many guys in the minors that can be called up if needed. But then again, we did sign Ozhiganov. so nothing would surprise me. I don’t know a thing about the other guy.
Like Leivo, we are probably going to here Johnsson’s name kicked around a lot in trade rumors until he makes the team full time. Washington is at absolute max for salary and might feel the need to drop salary before the deadline so they can acquire a couple ringers for the playoffs. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a move like this. Johnsson and Rasanen are both high quality prospect players, while Burakovsky and Dowey address a couple immediate needs for the Leafs.
I really like this proposal, and I think you’ve done an excellent job at identifying Washington as a trading partner, and targeting a couple players that Leafs could really benefit from. Depth wins cups, and this trade really puts us a lot closer to the ultimate goal.
2.) 18 Nov 2018 05:46:12
The deal is good value wise and helps both teams
Depth does not win cups.6 top forwards and 4 top defenceman wins cup., and I can't state this as the odvious, but it's the odvious, goalie and good coaching and management wins cups. that's why they get paid
Depth is replaceable. the rest, on the way it is built, gets every team to their goal. that goal is a cup.
Depth is important and this trade helps it, however it's not a deal to win a cup. resigning Nylander or dealing him for a top end defender will get a he leafs to that's goal.
aug18's banter posts with other poster's replies to aug18's banter posts
01 Jul 2019 22:37:04
Ok Bergevin offer sheeted Aho.
Now the Canes have to ante up not only to the cap value but to the payment which is working out to be 21 M over the first year.
So Carolina matches, they have little choice, the 1st, 2nd, & 3rd are not enough for Aho.
Montreal walks off scott free, with no penalty, except he'll never make a deal with the Canes again.
But Carolina's cap balance has been dealt a blow, and they have to match the payment as well (that was news to me).
What there needs to be is a penalty for a failed offer sheet. That way the poorer teams like Carolina can't be financially muscled off their better players without penalty.
Remember these are RFA's not UFA's. When Aho made HIS choice to sign an offer sheet with Montreal, he basically gave the finger to Carolina and will be punished for that by the fan base for years. But that doesn't help the teams cap space.
A simple way to help prevent that is to penalize the "offer team" a draft pick in a failed attempt depending on the tier of the player. This is 3rd rung if I have it right; so a 3rd rounder for arguments sake.
This way frivolous offer sheets like this wouldn't happen without penalty.
Otherwise, if the Canes match, the Canadiens are free to keep going around offer sheeting the next RFA in the list.
This decreases the overall cap space, inflating the cost to teams. And it's not like inflated cost for this league is a good thing.
The good part is that Bergevin is now a piece of crap amoung GM's; win or lose.
For example, if Bergevin was to turn around and offer sheet Marner and he signed it. When Dubas matches, he'd also get a 1st round pick as compensation.
Otherwise, screw it and let the offer sheets fly. It is kind of fun.
02 Jul 2019 10:51:14
Remember they have to sign Barrie next year.
Kerfoot is great if he signs at a low price (Maybe 3x2M) .
Gained a 6th and lost a 3rd. Soon we will corner the market in the last two rounds.
Still a good deal for now. Still need 1 more D though, might as well get 2 and give up none (tee hee) .
TOR: Nylander, Marincin, Ceci, 2nd
ARI: Hjalmarsson, Connor Timmins, 1st.
02 Jul 2019 01:29:15
Nope, need to trade nylander.
01 Jul 2019 23:06:58
Ok, winging it here, but since you shouted in CAPS how about:
TOR: Kadri C; Nylander RW 11.5 M
NJD: Hischier C; Severson RD 5 M, Mcleod C (Devils have 20M in cap space)
Two good, but problem players for an overrated 1st OA (52 and 47 pts are good, but not special), a mid level Center, and a solid 2nd pair Dman at a good price. Balance the deal as you need to. Mcleod help balance out the cap a little, and the Leafs need to replace Kadri as a 3rd line center.
Leafs still have an extra 5M (this is done after they sign Marner)
Would NJD do this, maybe not. But it's not like they did well last year. And they have to keep Hall in the fold.
From Mess to Bliss.
01 Jul 2019 12:46:50
Maybe no one wants him. No one wants Ceci. At least, not at the prices both are at.
Lots of teams will want Brown at 2.1M. Actually will be a shame to move him in a deal like this.
30 Jun 2019 21:12:22
GM
One caveat to how this trade helps us.
Leafs need to resign Marner, and clear cap to protect against an offer sheet.
The Leafs will offer a low ball salary.
If I have it right; then Ceci would take the Leafs to arbitration (not the Leafs taking Ceci to arbitration) and the Leafs submit a ridiculously low value where the arbitrator has no choice but to award the players bid. Then the Leafs have the right to walk away, gaining Zaitsev's cap space (and maybe Browns salary in total) . Ceci gets free agency. The Leafs get nothing in return but cap space, which is desired.
The Leafs will then have enough to protect against any reasonable Marner offer sheet.
If it's straight up for Ceci then it's the same as dumping Zaitsev for no cost. A little cruel, but that's business.
Best of luck getting 5M+ Ceci.
07 Jul 2019 14:35:58
I'd take the same.
NJ, and Calgary would both have to add.
01 Jul 2019 22:11:41
Too late.
He's gone to Tampa for a massive 700k.
09 Oct 2018 09:38:46
Bismark:
Dubas and the Leafs hold all the cards here. Willy is overreaching and 6M or less over 8 years is appropriate.
Arbitration will not work in Nylander's favour, and a bridge is out as neither side wants that. Because of the way his agent is holding out, a no trade clause is now out of the picture as well, unless he caves in for a paltry 6M. (Wish I had that choice! )
The greed and stupidity, never ceases to amaze. This is Toronto, opportunities in advertising, social, and other extra work to raise your portfolio, more than make up for that money. If you are hated for holding out, all of that dries up.
But I think a trade is coming regardless of whether they sign him or not.
I think the only way this can be salvaged is for Willy to fire his Dad, sign what the Leafs offered on the inclusion of a no trade clause. After all his future security is what he is after. 8 years of playing with Mathews vs. this years flavour of center in Arizona (the Death Valley of Hockey) .
His Dad will never get over it if he ends up in Arizona.
08 Oct 2018 19:44:52
@Mitchsimpson
Kyle Dubas will text over his phone soon, to all GM's:
"For sale - Jake Gardiner - 15th overall defenseman in points, 17th overall the year before, and can skate forward. Big year coming. Nylander is causing a cap crunch. Must sell"
"Josh Leivo - His first name starts with J as well - name your price".
" William Nylander - Blond flowing hair, glides fast, slippery, other players can never be hit by him, and two 61 point seasons in a row. He's never seen an offensive zone he didn't like. If you are looking for a player at the top of your payroll he's your man. A deposit of 1 young, sterling, RHD is required"
"Martin Marincin is currently auditioning for an emergency replacement (on another team) . The ultimate depth defenseman and seasoned pro of the press box. Just name your price, please".
"Connor Brown - Not for sale, unless it's Niederreiter at half price"
"Tyler Ennis - A dizzying, whirling fuzz ball, with a punch them in the fist with your face approach to checking. The jury is still out, but please send your offer just in case to add yourself to the waiting list"
10 Jul 2018 04:18:51
Yeah! Baby! Doubt it!