17 Oct 2018 23:04:08
OK looking out 5 years. Would love input

This year:

Nylander bridged at $5m 4 years
Pesce brought in
Gardiner traded

2019-20

Marner signed for $8m at whatever years this gets
Matthews $12m 8 years
Johnnson proves self: signs for $2.5m
Kapanen drops back down: signs for $3m
Leivo makes it and resigns for $1.5m
Kadri traded
Kadri replacement for $2.5m
Lindholm stays: gets short term $1.5m
Grundstrom arrives
Marleau gone
Liljegren arrives
Ozzy proves self. Gets $2.5m

2020-21

Leivo secures longer term at $2.5m
Gautier good on 4th line. $1m contract
Dermott raise to $3.5
Sandin arrives
Rasanen arrives

2021-22

Hyman traded due to cap
New Hyman earns $2.5
Grundstrom raise to $3m
Liljegren to $3.5m
Andersen raise to $7m
Durzi arrives

2022-23

Nylander traded
New Nylander at $5m
Sandin raise to $3m
Rasanen raise to $3m
Ozzy traded.

2023-24

Kapanen raise to $4.5
Suzi raise to $3m



2023-24 leafs

Tavares - Marner - new Hyman
Johnnson - Matthews - new Nylander
Leivo - new Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - lindholm - Gautier

Dermott - Pesce
Sandin - Liljegren
Durzi - rasanen
Unknown seventh

Andersen
Backup

Cap at roughly $97m. Keep cushion of $5m. This team would have an extra $3m beyond the $5m to play with. Based on numbers I gave. This is not going to be easy.

1.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 00:18:07
Unlikely that Leivo, Lindholm, Gauthier, Kapanen will still even be on this team. Doubt Hyman goes tbh, Leafs will do all in power to keep him, one of those dmen [Liljegren, Sandin, Durzi, Rasanen] is bound to fail, maybe even two. Doubt Freddy stays as starter for another five years. There will be a ton more players brought in, the only guys for sure who'll be on the 2023/ 24 Leafs, imo, are Tavares, Matthews and Marner. That's it. We can't judge five years into the future, we can't simply be estimating then cause that's plain preposterous. We think for the 'now', and for one-two years down the road, cause that's all we can predict. None of the guys suggested, aside from maybe Liljegren will actually stay. We just have to let it play out.

2.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 00:25:52
I love how the replacements are called “new Hyman”, “new Nylander”, etc. I think it looks reasonable for the most part.

2019/ 2020

Johnsson has a lot to prove before the end of the year after such a slow start. How do you plan on dumping Marleau? I’ve racked my brain and can’t figure out a way to get out of that contract.

What happened to Rielly and Zaitsev? Lol.

I think you’re right to be trading Kadri. We get a good return. Probably at least a 1st and an adequate replacement. We should do it now while he’s at maximum value. Same rational applies to Rielly.

It’s hard to predict what Liljegren, Sandin, Durzi will get until we see them play, but those numbers seem a bit light. Under $4M for those guys in 2-3 years time just seems low to me for some reason.

I love it. We keep the core together and trade out aging and expensive UFA’s for cheaper, younger replacements and futures. It’s exactly what should be happening. Dubas isn’t married to any of these guys.

3.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 00:41:51
Forgot to say Reilly traded the year before his current contract ends.

Shocking how hard this will be to manage. But they end up losing Nylander and Kadri up front and virtually the entire current defence. I'm sure I missed a name here or there but the final team is pretty much what I indicated there if the numbers held true.

4.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 00:42:43
Missed trading Zaitsev as well.

5.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 00:59:43
And wheres rielly?

6.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 01:38:24
Top shelf slappers

I hardly think it's preposterous to go 5 years out. If the GM and his people have any brains at all they will go out long term and try to project where things will be. I wonder how some other teams got in trouble with the salary cap. And I am sure that some / many of these players will not play out.

The point I was trying to make is that with the team I show at the end they are under the cap but not by much if they have a cushion. If every single young defence man played out they will still be close to cap. Planning has to start now.

7.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 01:45:06
Leafs GM

As far as Marleau goes, sure they can keep him. But for each decision like that, someone else is lost. I have seen others here say "they know what they ate doing better than someone like me". But I can add so he has to go. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to keep a 40 Year old at the expense of younger players

I'm guessing robidas or San Jose. So zero return. If he doesn't agree than so be it

In my summary I was looking at a list and simply missed Reilly and Zaitsev. Reilly goes the year before his contract is up. I believe Zaitsev 2 years after the current season

I am sure some salaries were off too. I purposely went low knowing others would say they have to be higher. But as said, numbers don't work then. So others will have to go

I guess I was trying to show that of the current team, don't expect it to stay together for very long. Going to be very interesting to watch how its done.

8.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 04:48:27
I think they can keep most of the current team together. Look at Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh. They’ve all managed to keep their core for well over a decade. A few of the fringe players will have to go (Brown, Leivo, etc), and a few tough decisions will have to be made: Marleau, Kadri, Rielly, but for the most part, we will keep the core together.

You’re suggesting exactly the same line of thought that I believe Leafs will pursue. Trading out UFA’s for futures, while keeping the back end fluid and low cost so we can support our high prices forward group. A similar strategy that Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, have all pursued and still remained competitive.

You’ve been in this site a long time and post a lot of roster suggestions based around finances. We both know that not everyone will agree with what you have to say, but you make a lot of sense. Sure, no one has a crystal ball, and predicting what will happen five years in advance is difficult, but that’s why we are on here to begin with. Five years isn’t a very long time, and you can be sure that the lineups and changes you’ve suggested are reasonably accurate. Only looking out 1-3 years is very short sighted in my opinion. The only GM’s doing that are the ones at risk of losing their jobs and are in “win now” mode. You can be damn sure Dubas is looking at least five years out, of not more. He’s probably got a mock roster with salaries for each position for the next 7-8 years.

I always like your posts Jodes because of how logical they are. Hockey is a business, a very big business. And a team has to be run as one.

9.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 05:40:42
Leafs GM

Thanks for the input. I am well aware that not all will agree lol but I love to post and see the reactions. I quite enjoy the thoughts that come out.

Unfortunately I do not know all the players u seem to and name in trades. I'm pretty much a one for one guy and others can add the picks / prospects, etc

The defence part in particular I had fun with on this post. With all the changes and increases in cap, they would have to have a very young / cheap defence to make it work still. When I started to build a 5 Year look I had no idea where it would end up. I had to keep adding and removing players based on salary as they just won't work. And yes I did indeed go a little low on some of the young defence men numbers. To prove a point more than anything.

Always gun to read your thoughts. Keep it up. And for those of u throwing out complaints about others I urge you: don't read it stay silent.

10.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 06:22:22
I agree with you Jodes: it’s always fun to play around with the roster and numbers and post things just to get a reaction from others. Good or bad, I post anything that even is somewhat based in reality, even when I know I’m going to get heat. Somebody usually says something that you can keep in mind for later.

You got to keep trying and have a thick skin and have fun. That’s why we all joined. Keep up the good work. We need more guys like you on this site to encourage others. We only have a small community of regular contributors right now. A few more wouldn’t hurt. It’s guys like you who keep this site going.

11.) 18 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018 18:15:40
Actually one more thought RE salaries

In looking only at defence, I recommend anyone go look at top 10 teams. See what they pay top 2, second 2 and third pair. Adjust a bit for nhl cap inflation and u get a pretty good idea how the good teams manage the cap. For example, right now, a lot of third pairings are in the $1m per player range. So down the road, I fully expect at least 2 of the young ones I mentioned to not make it or be traded if they do as too expensive.

If u did indeed have Pesce and Dermott on top pair down recross and let's say sandin makes it to play will Liljegren, we need third pairing guys at lower cap hit to manage

Funny how no-one mentioned I traded all those guys but only Pesce came back. I figured there would be questions.

Answer is that they all go for futures. If u want something more for a given Year, go free agent route.